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Category: General Election

CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

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VOTING INTENTION Con 42% (NC) Lab 27% (-2) LD 7% (NC) UKIP 15% (+2) Green 3% (NC) SNP 5% (NC) Other 1% (NC) And Osbo’s leadership hopes take another blow The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied…

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Pre “adjustment” ICM has LAB and CON level-pegging – after it the Tories are 6% ahead

Pre “adjustment” ICM has LAB and CON level-pegging – after it the Tories are 6% ahead

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Before ICM's adjustment for don't knows+refusers LAB had small lead. The headline figures were CON lead of 6% pic.twitter.com/RnhkpXqkvn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2015 After “adjustment” Con 39 (+1) Lab 33 (-1) UKIP 12 (+1) LD 7 (nc) In a note of explanation the pollster observes: It should be noted, however, that the raw data shows substantive change which our newly strengthened adjustment process disguises. Based on (pre-adjusted) turnout weighted data, the parties are neck and neck, which…

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Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance

Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance

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He needs to look like a potential winner not a loser For the moment at least Mr Corbyn’s authority within the Labour Party derives directly from the sheer scale of his victory in the leadership election in September. His winning margin, of course, was even greater than that of Tony Blair’s in 1994. So whenever questions are raised as is inevitable within the Parliamentary Labour Party given his lack of support there, his team will point to the September voting…

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Electoral pacts: the siren voice of destruction for Labour

Electoral pacts: the siren voice of destruction for Labour

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Q Nothing else would so effectively combine surrender with contempt for the electorate Parties that do badly at elections should always reflect on why that was the case. It’s not an easy question to ask because almost certainly there’ll be tough answers, if the question’s answered honestly. In all probability, those answers will include ‘our campaign was ineffective’, ‘the public did not support our policies’, ‘we did not look credible as a government / force of opposition’, ‘our record in…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast explores what it’s like being a losing candidate

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast explores what it’s like being a losing candidate

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Getting there but not quite On this week’s edition of the PB / Polling Matters podcast we explore what it’s like running for parliament. Keiran speaks to two unsuccessful candidates from 2015 and asks about their experiences, the pressures they faced and why they thought Labour lost. About this week’s guests: Russell Whiting stood in Suffolk Coastal and works as a political advisor for an NGO. You can follow Russell on twitter at @Russell_Whiting James Frith stood in Bury North…

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Donald Brind wonders whether Mr. Corbyn really wants to be PM

Donald Brind wonders whether Mr. Corbyn really wants to be PM

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An opposition leader’s primary objective should be Number 10 I was rather excited by the recent launch of BBC Store which opens up, for sale and download, a treasure trove programmes dating back to the fifties. My first foray was, however, unsuccessful. I got the message  “Unfortunately, your search didn’t return any results. The title may not be on BBC Store yet. However, we are adding more programmes every day, so please check back soon.” I certainly will. What I was…

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REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron Banks Leave.EU

REMAIN drops 2 in new Survation poll for UKIP donor Aaron Banks Leave.EU

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The first referendum poll since Cameron’s EU letter REMAIN 38%-2 LEAVE 43% nc DK 19% +2 For the first time in two months there’s an EU referendum poll which has OUT in the lead. It was carried out by Survation for the Aaron Banks Leave.EU organisation which is bidding to be the officially recognised referendum campaign against staying in the EU. Fieldwork for the poll was carried out after David Cameron’s formal move earlier in the week setting out parameters…

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Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

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It could be more significant than tax credits The House of Lords revolt on tax credits has got a huge amount of attention.  Less newsworthy, because it didn’t succeed, was an attempt in the House of Lords to delay the introduction of individual electoral registration by 12 months beyond the government’s proposed timetable.  The implications of that vote, however, may be more far-reaching.  What effect will it have? This post is going to be both long and technical.  That is…

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