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Category: General Election

Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions

Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions

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Where do we go now? One of the most haunting Arthurian legends concerns Sir Balin.  Merlin had long prophesied that he would “strike a stroke most dolorous that ever man struck”.  Shrugging off this particular instance of Project Fear from an expert, Sir Balin entered into a feud with the family of King Pellam.  Being pursued by the king through his castle, Sir Balin seized “a marvellous spear strangely wrought” and dealt a fierce blow to the king.  The spear…

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Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters of Brexit

Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters of Brexit

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Embed from Getty Images   Philip Walker analyses the polling and finds 3 in Every 7 of Labour’s 2015 Voters Backing Brexit Would Not Vote Labour in 2016 In the EU referendum, online and phone polls have persistently been at odds. Last week, YouGov reacted by publishing in full a set of parallel online and phone polling conducted in early May, exposing flaws in the phone sample to defend its own online method.  For polling junkies that unprecedented transparency had a…

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A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next election

A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next election

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Can you spot what subtle message David Cameron is trying to get across if the UK votes to leave the EU? pic.twitter.com/szzuh9VBT0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 14, 2016 Brexiteers are in danger of being blamed for the next recession even if it has nothing do with Brexit On one side we have, inter alia, the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, and the great and the good, from the IMF, the OECD, NIESR, The Bank of England, and their Governor, Mark Carney,…

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If Corbyn does becomes Prime Minister he should thank those behind the Zac campaign

If Corbyn does becomes Prime Minister he should thank those behind the Zac campaign

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The Wrath of Khan, Sadiq Khan accuses David Cameron of Trump-like anti Muslim tactics https://t.co/d4xYcljodG pic.twitter.com/kW3l90MlbN — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 7, 2016 As a Muslim I was appalled at Goldsmith’s campaign, as a Tory I’m appalled that Goldsmith’s campaign makes Corbyn as PM more likely. When your own sister criticises your campaign and praises your opponent as a good role model, when the media runs a quiz asking Who said it: Britain First or Zac Goldsmith? deep down you must know you’ve run…

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The Michael Crick election expenses investigation could get serious for the Tories

The Michael Crick election expenses investigation could get serious for the Tories

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Electoral Commission officials are meeting with police and prosecutors to ask for more time to decide whether to… https://t.co/lql0rwBWHt — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) May 4, 2016 Dave’s majority could be at risk The news that the Electoral Commission is talking to the police and CPS about Tory GE2015 election expenses in key marginal constituencies has the potential to be troubling to the party which, of course, won a majority of 12 last year. Crick and his C4 News team retuned…

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At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys

At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys

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A pointer to EURef polling? With the huge split between online and phone polls that we are seeing for the referendum it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how the two modes did during the official GE2015 campaign period. The chart could not be more clear. Throughout the campaign the big picture from phone polls was that the Tories had the edge while with internet polls it was Labour. We should note that being lumped in with all the other online…

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From Blair to Corbyn, Livingstone, and Hitler, 19 years is a long time in politics

From Blair to Corbyn, Livingstone, and Hitler, 19 years is a long time in politics

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Just a reminder how good embittered Blairites are at winning general elections for Labour. Corbynistas take note pic.twitter.com/tEFDUCfVf1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 1, 2016 Can things only get better for Labour? Not whilst the stench of anti-Semitism swirls around the party Nineteen years ago today, Tony Blair led the Labour Party back into government after eighteen years in opposition. 418 MPs elected, 145 gains, and a 179 seat majority. The way Labour and Corbyn are heading, they will be lucky…

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Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

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Via @montie More bad polling comparisons for Osborne. Look how far he's behind Corbyn pic.twitter.com/eXP1DSSqyT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2016 Alastair Meeks says predicting GE2020 is harder than the blues think Much comment has been passed this week on David Cameron’s falling ratings.  He now ranks behind Jeremy Corbyn on favourability ratings with YouGov.  “How low he has sunk” is the usual comment, and it is true. But as the table above shows, this is not a problem…

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