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Category: General Election

Signs are that 2017 could be a big Westminster by-election year topping even 2016

Signs are that 2017 could be a big Westminster by-election year topping even 2016

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We know of two already and 2017 hasn’t even started One of the big trends in recent times, as the chart shows, has been for a big increase in by-elections caused by other than the death or health of the sitting MP. This year there’ve been seven contests with five of them in the “other” category. Ogmore and Toting were caused by the sitting MP either switching to the Welsh Assembly or becoming Mayor of London. Two of the other…

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Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%

Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%

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Opinium has the LDs down to 6% & CON lead down 5 to 7% CON: 38% (-3)LAB: 31% (+2)UKIP: 13% (+1)LD: 6% (-1)GRN: 4% (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2016 Public approval ratings (Approve / Disapprove):May: 42 / 27Corbyn: 21 / 47Farron: 15 / 32Nuttall: 11 / 33Sturgeon: 26 / 38(Opinium) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 17, 2016 Throughout 2016 Opinium has had the LDs at 2½-3% below the average for other pollsters. This has become a "house…

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Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election

Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election

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One of the irritating things about current polling is that not all firms are providing a breakdown based on referendum vote. This seems odd given that what people did on June 23rd says more about them politically than just about anything else. One pollster that does so in every survey is YouGov and the splits in the chart above are based on its latest poll. My plan is to track these numbers on a regular basis. Currently amongst REMAIN voters…

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A Richmond Park by election polling boost for the LDs from Ipsos MORI: up 4% to 14%

A Richmond Park by election polling boost for the LDs from Ipsos MORI: up 4% to 14%

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From today’s Ipsos MORI phone poll for the Standard Con 40 (-2) Lab 29 (-4) LD 14 (+4) UKIP 9 (+2 GRN 3 (nc) Yellows getting biggest support in Southern England .@IpsosMORI regional splits LDsNorth 12%Midlands 11%South 18% London 13%Scotland 11%No separate figure for SW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2016 TMay heading for cross-over perhaps in her satisfaction ratings TMay net @IpsosMORI satisfaction levels declining. How long before she's showing a negative? pic.twitter.com/aJutaW1cCj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…

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How Team Corbyn screwed up JC’s big day and reduced even further LAB’s General Election chances

How Team Corbyn screwed up JC’s big day and reduced even further LAB’s General Election chances

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Remember what CON did to EdM who looked awkward eating bacon butties. Now they've got thishttps://t.co/qu9yGIMzmk via @HuffPostUKPol — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 14, 2016 What close aides did in previous jobs does matter – just ask Andy Coulson Yesterday Corbyn was having a great day. The big issue was the government’s struggle on care services and the LAB leader had probably his most effective PMQs. Then came the announcement of the hire of the senior aide with a Sinn…

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Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

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Ladbrokes’ odds imply it is a 9% chance that Labour poll below 20% at the next general election, with Corbyn leading Labour I think the chances are higher Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.) The YouGov poll earlier…

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Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

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Their position continues to get worse, gradually Lincolnshire has a habit of producing earthquakes. One in 1185 was powerful enough to badly damage Lincoln Cathedral. A more recent example, centred near Market Rasen at about 1am on 27 Feb 2008, was strong enough to wake people across large parts of the North and Midlands. To go by the reporting, the Sleaford & North Hykeham by-election didn’t generate similar tremors. The reporting is wrong; politics’ tectonic plates continue to move. The…

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Guido says the Tories are bracing themselves for charges over Thanet South

Guido says the Tories are bracing themselves for charges over Thanet South

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It could be the first where the Michael Crick C4 investigation has an impact The big party expenses probe by the Electoral Commission that was triggered off by the series of C4 News reports by Michael Crick appears to be edging forward. Yesterday the Lib Dem were fined £20k by the Electoral Commission following a similar move some weeks back against Labour. The Crick investigation has looked mostly at the GE2015 expenses in crucial battlegrounds for the Tories. Guido writes:…

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