Browsed by
Category: General Election

Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working classes, 16% behind amongst C2DEs

Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working classes, 16% behind amongst C2DEs

Comments 0 Comment

How long can the red team keep Corbyn at the controls? The latest Ipsos MORI poll is out and has more polling numbers to fuel the Corbyn must go narrative. Perhaps the most striking figures are in the socio economic split featured above with Corbyn’s party trailing by 16% amongst the C2DEs – the working classes. Essentially under the current leadership LAB has lost its core vote. Other data in the poll is hardly encouraging. These are the leader satisfaction…

Read More Read More

Latest YouGov sees LAB in third place, 3% behind UKIP, amongst the C2DEs

Latest YouGov sees LAB in third place, 3% behind UKIP, amongst the C2DEs

Comments 0 Comment

Labour’s polling misery continues One very striking feature of the latest YouGov poll out this morning is LAB position amongst the lower socio-economic groups. The numbers are in the chart. As can be seen in this segment LAB is on just 20% which is 3% behind UKIP. Will have to see a week on Thursday whether these movements are refelected in the latest batch of Westminster by elections. Stoke Central clearly, has a large proportion of C2DEs and if this…

Read More Read More

GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated

Comments 0 Comment

The numbers caused LAB to focus on the DPM when they could have been saving Balls There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how difficult single seat polling is and I was reminded on Twitter this morning of the polling at GE2015 of Sheffield Hallam. The numbers are above. Five consecutive polls had LAB ahead. As can be seen there was a pretty consistent picture that the then DPM,, who still arouses excitement amongst red tribalists, was in trouble…

Read More Read More

A look at the betting options if Theresa May falls

A look at the betting options if Theresa May falls

Comments 0 Comment

Theresa May’s position currently looks unassailable. Her speech last week was very well received by the public and her opinion poll leads are overwhelming. For now, her honeymoon with voters shows few signs of abating and she stands dominant over the British political scene. But will it last? The times in which there is the greatest consensus about the political future is often the best time to look for betting value. And the course that has to be navigated between…

Read More Read More

After an extraordinary and dramatic political year so little has changed in the battle between CON & LAB

After an extraordinary and dramatic political year so little has changed in the battle between CON & LAB

Comments 0 Comment

The main moves – UKIP down LD up After this morning’s YouGov poll came out I was asked on Twitter for the comparative numbers for a year ago and other points during 2016. The data is in the chart above and shows quite extraordinary that Labour and the Conservatives have almost the same numbers this month that they had a year ago. This is a period which has seen the election of a Muslim mayor in London, Brexit, and, of course, a…

Read More Read More

A measure of the anti-elite backlash will be when when a non-dark blue educated leader becomes a GE winner

A measure of the anti-elite backlash will be when when a non-dark blue educated leader becomes a GE winner

Comments 0 Comment

It is not hard to spot the trend here General Election Winning party leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher…

Read More Read More

CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

Comments 0 Comment

The squeeze on LAB from Yellow and Purple continues Unlike the last last parliament when there was at least one poll every single day for more than four years surveyd are now few and far between at the moment. The only regular (monthly or more) Westminster voting polls are coming from just four firms – YouGov, ICM, Opinium and Ipsos MORI. At least individual polls are not having a greater impact. The big picture is the continuation of the sorry…

Read More Read More

The winners under First Past The Post should rigidly adhere to election spending laws

The winners under First Past The Post should rigidly adhere to election spending laws

Comments 0 Comment

The chart above is self-explanatory and illustrates clearly how well the electoral system treated the Tories at the last election and how hard it was on the smaller parties particularly UKIP. General elections are won in the marginal constituencies where clearly the parties focus their resources both financial and people. But the law lays down very strict spending limits on how much can be spent by each party within each seat. Parties shouldn’t be able to buy victory simply because…

Read More Read More