Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks who accurately predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 looks at the best Scottish seat bets In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands. Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then. 2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement. The SNP already have 56 out of the 59 seats that they compete in, so their room for…
Lab & Lib Dem vote is a lot softer than the Con vote @IpsosMORI poll finds implying an even larger Con majority than we think might happen? pic.twitter.com/PDHa8BVsGg — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 28, 2017 The Labour and Lib Dem vote is substantially softer than the Tory vote In this month’s Ipsos MORI poll it found that the Labour and Lib Dem vote is softer than the Tory party vote, this came as a surprise to me. One of the reasons…
SpreadEx CON 384-390 LAB 158-164 LD 25-28 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 46-49 Sporting Index CON 384-390 LAB 162-168 LD 26-29 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 47-50 As regular PBers will know my favourite form of election betting is that featured above – the Commons seats spreads where you buy and sell seats like shares. Two levels are quoted. The higher one is the buy price and the one is the sell one. This is a form of betting where the more you are…
How important will Brexit be on June 8th? The latest YouGov BREXIT tracker was published in the Times over-night and shows a move to people now saying that the referendum decision was wrong rather than right. This is a regular polling question that has been asked by YouGov in exactly the same manner since Theresa May became prime minister. Then, as the chart above shows, 4% more people thought Brexit was right than wrong. Now the “wrong” segment in leading…
On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…
Now age, education and gender give a better guide This afternoon YouGov has published a series of charts to give us an idea about the electorate who will vote on June 8th. This will be the first election since analysis became possible when class was far less important. Age education and to an extent gender now the key measures as the charts demonstrate. Labour’s problem is that under Mr. Corbyn the working classes have ceased to support the party that…
Another indicator of a CON landslide This morning, in the London Evening Standard, we have the first telephone poll of the general election campaign. The figures are very much in line with the other polls that we’ve seen in the last week. The striking number in this latest is the UKIP share down to just 4% which I think the lowest share that the party has had in years. Clearly the main feature of this campaign has been Labour’s inability…
No simultaneous elections on June 8th means speedier counts One of the features of the June 8th General Election it is that no other elections are being held on the same day. This is in sharp comparison to all the general elections since 1992 when John Major went to the country in April four weeks before that year’s locals. This is important because it should have a big impact on the time it takes for the counts to proceed. If…