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Category: General Election

The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict

The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict

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TONIGHT: Iconic psephologist @SirDavidButler tells @maitlis he's never seen such a big movement of opinion in election polls #newsnight pic.twitter.com/MSaQXOAykM — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) May 26, 2017 I spent the whole of yesterday in the sweltering heat of central London discussing with one group after another the same subject – how GE2017 had suddenly become so much harder to predict. During the morning I was at an academic conference at the British Academy on the intriguing subject of whether June…

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Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

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The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400. SportingIndex has it slightly higher at 373-379 which means that my sell bet at 393 placed on Saturday night is now showing a nice profit. What’s nice about this form of betting is that you can take and pocket your profits well before the election has taken place….

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Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

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New YouGov polling just published had her dipping into negative territory One of the striking features of TMay’s period at Number 10 is how she has maintained positive leadership ratings throughput. Whether pollsters were asking about approval, favourability, satisfaction, or whether she was doing a good or bad job all the numbers were positive from the moment she became PM last July. That run ended in the aftermath of the launch of the controversial General Election manifesto a week last…

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YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

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CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2017 There’s a new Times/YouGov poll that has LAB just 5% behind the Tories which s by far the smallest we have seen this year. To put this into context David Cameron won his majority in 2015 with a GB vote lead over LAB of 6.5%. This poll suggests that that could be narrowed. This latest poll was carried out yesterday and today and so fully…

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Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets

Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets

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With the campaign starting to get underway again it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that we have a dearth of up to date polling. There’ve only three national surveys that were carried out after the CON manifesto launch last week. These have been ICM and the Survation online poll for the Mail on Sunday and the phone one for Good Morning Britain. We’ve also had the YouGov Wales poll which had LAB with a bigger margin over CON than EdM’s…

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Theresa May was right, this election should be about Brexit

Theresa May was right, this election should be about Brexit

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The appalling events of Monday evening are dominating the election campaign. Young children and teenagers should be able to attend a pop concert without fear of being killed.  I struggle to understand the mind of a man that can choose to inflict so much pain and suffering on so many young people and their families.  Feelings are understandably running high: grief, anger, outrage and despair are mingled. Security is a primal concern.  The knowledge that there are people who walk…

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Every day that the GE2017 campaign is suspended is a win for the terrorists

Every day that the GE2017 campaign is suspended is a win for the terrorists

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Corbyn, May and the others are avoiding proper scrutiny One of the main functions of an election campaign is to ensure that those who seek to govern us are subject to proper scrutiny something that is much easier to avoid in non-election periods. TMay didn’t enjoy her inquisition by Andrew Neil on Monday night and I’ve little doubt that the other four who are due to be questioned are looking forward to their appearances with some trepidation. This is quite…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour’s recent poll surge is ‘real’ and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. Later in the show, Keiran…

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