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Category: General Election

The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on Betfair

The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on Betfair

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So far, 264 CLPs have nominated candidates to be leader of the Labour Party. Keir Starmer: 154 Rebecca Long-Bailey: 70 Lisa Nandy: 28 Emily Thornberry: 12 pic.twitter.com/DPfceU7RXd — CLP Nominations (@CLPNominations) February 4, 2020 Unless LAB members vote in a very different way in the postal ballot compared with what is happening at the constituency party level or else Keir Starmer makes some massive cock-up between now and April 2nd then he is an absolute certainty to succeed Corbyn. One…

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Reflections from Cyclefree: Here We Go (Again)

Reflections from Cyclefree: Here We Go (Again)

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There were not many dogs, hardy or otherwise, out this morning on the North West coast, understandably so in view of the overcast weather. Still, on a clear day from the top of Black Combe , a couple of miles away, it is possible to see Northern Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man. Beyond lies Ireland and the great big wide world beyond. All those opportunities!  Just behind the spot where this photo was taken is Silecroft station, one…

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Infrastructure: the Conservatives’ necessary but misplaced priority

Infrastructure: the Conservatives’ necessary but misplaced priority

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The Custard Factory is one of Birmingham’s more striking developments.   Its current incarnation is as Birmingham’s answer to Shoreditch (a question that probably did not need asking).  Its history, however, stands as a warning to the government, a warning that it almost certainly will not heed. The Custard Factory’s name is not, like so many new developments, the product of a random buzzword generator, but a simple statement of its origin.  Until 1964, Bird’s Custard was manufactured on that…

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The Blair Supremacy. Rating Corbyn as a politician

The Blair Supremacy. Rating Corbyn as a politician

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Memo to Mr Corbyn and his supporters: This is what the winning the argument looks like. So no Miss Long-Bailey, Corbyn’s doesn’t deserve 10 out of 10 as a politician unless you’re a Tory. I suspect once Labour come to terms that Blair is the only Labour politician to have won a majority in the 45 years then they will begin their road to recovery. TSE

Will the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election?

Will the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election?

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  Ladbrokes have a market up on the Conservatives increasing their majority at the next general election. I can understand why some will want to back the 4/1. Boundary changes would see the Conservative majority increase to around 104 if the vote shares remained identical at the next election and if Labour choose electoral Ebola in the form of Ian Lavery then this bet looks like a winner. I’m always wary of markets where the bookmaker doesn’t offer the other…

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Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB leadership election

Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB leadership election

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Starmer takes lead in race to become new Labour leader – poll https://t.co/DH2rmYGGlM — Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) January 1, 2020 Amongst first preferences the poll has: 31% Starmer 20% Long-Bailey 11% Phillips 7% Cooper 6 Lewis 6% Thornberry 5% Nandy Assuming it came to just Starmer versus Long-Bailey poll has Starmer on 61% to Long-Bailey’s 39%. In the last two leadership elections the membership gave Corbyn a clear lead. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”

As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”

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After the 1992 General Election, the fourth consecutive Conservative victory, the Times, in its wonderful statistical summary, described the Conservatives as “the natural Party of Government” and Labour as “the natural Party of Opposition”. Despite a poor economic outlook and 13 years of Government, John Major surprised the polls and most pundits by coming home victorious. In the aftermath, there were those who believed somehow the electoral laws had been overcome and the Conservatives could and indeed would never lose…

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Tory and SNP landslides – Blair’s lasting legacy?

Tory and SNP landslides – Blair’s lasting legacy?

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  In 1997 Labour swept to a landslide victory sweeping all parts of Britain. In Scotland winning 45.6% of the vote and 77.8% of the seats. In England winning 43.5% of the votes and 62.0% of the seats. One of Blair’s first and most consequential acts was to bring in devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but left English laws controlled by Parliament with no answer to the West Lothian Question. Supposedly a decision that was intended to “kill…

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