A tawdry May-DUP deal is not something Con MPs should sign up to According to the plan, this should have been the week when Theresa May stamped her authority on her government, her Party and the country. A reshuffle to mould her ministers in her image; a Queen’s Speech to tackle the issues she cares about, in the way that she wants to tackle them; and five years in which to do that, to deliver Brexit and to tee up…
The LAB leader now a 21% as BoJo chances edge downwards With BoJo’s comments on fire-brigade cuts while he was Mayor going viral on social media and the assured visit to the Grenfell Tower scene by Corbyn yesterday there’s been a reaction on the PM after TMay betting market on Betfair. The LAB leader, rated as a 21% shot has now edged to the favourite slot as punters evaluate the impact of the tragedy on the current precarious political scene….
If Gordon Brown could do it at GE10 then what about the Yellows? We all know that GE10 wasn’t a good one for Gordon Brown’s LAB. The party lost power after having a comfortable majority for 13 years and suffered huge seat losses. The chart above shows the party’s vote share changes in different parts of the UK but there was one place which bucked the overall trend Scotland. Whereas in England LAB was down more than 7.4% in Scotland…
TMay's net favourability ratings with YouGov slump to record low. Now down to a net minus 34% while Corbyn soars pic.twitter.com/9kccrrQpcC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2017 How things look so different from just 7 days ago What a dramatic week it has been for TMay. At this time last Thursday she appeared to be heading for a comfortable majority with her gamble on an early election looking as though it had paid off. That, as we all know…
Alastair Meeks who correctly predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 and that the SNP would lose their majority at Holyrood in 2016 looks over last week’s Scottish general election results. General elections are like forest fires for party leaders. Within 24 hours of the 2015 election, Ed Mliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage had all resigned. Paul Nuttall resigned as promptly after last week’s election, after the disappointing but expected loss of UKIP’s sole MP. Tim Farron resigned before a…
It is extraordinary to reflect that just a week ago this morning all looked set for a certain CON victory with the betting being on a majority of about 80 seats. Everything seemed set for TMay win a workable Commons majority and a victory in her own right. The polls were almost united in their view and the only clouds on the horizon were the then discredited YouGov model and Survation’s numbers which were dismissed as an outlier. It appeared…
This Parliament likely to go full 5 year distance. Only 2 by elections in Tory seats in 2010-2015 Parliament, excluding UKIP defectors. 1/2 — Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2) June 12, 2017 Tories have no incentive to overturn Fixed Term Parliament Act. 2/2 — Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2) June 12, 2017 A look at when the next election might take place Clearly we haven’t had enough elections recently. In the last three years we’ve been treated to the Scottish independence referendum, the May…
Wikipedia It is little comfort to the election predictors/modellers that Wikipedia has now decided to record for posterity how successful they were in predicting the party seat outcome of GE17. The chart is above. As can be seen only the YouGov model based on 50k+ of its own interviews came out of this well. Throughout the campaign the forecaster/modellers aimed to produce projections of the party seat totals which, are course, based on the outcome of 650 separate first past…