Numbers like this will add to the pressure on the PM Just two weeks to the minute after we saw the exit poll there’s some sensational new polling from YouGov for the Times. The figures are above. TMay is now trailing Corbyn as best PM. This could provide the ammunition for those in the Tory party who are said to have been pressing for a new leader following TMay’s GE2017 campaign. The Tories don’t like losers is how she is…
The Guardian article in which Norman Lamb says he's not standing https://t.co/vlGG9mNsic pic.twitter.com/SlzqZDUr6W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2017 So now it looks like Cable versus Davey The busiest UK political betting market at the moment is on the LD leadership and within the last few minutes the Guardian has published the piece linked to above by the ex-health minister, Norman Lamb. This has come as a shock because Lamb did very well against Farron last time and the…
On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium. The team discuss this week’s Queen’s Speech and the start of the Brexit negotiations and what happens next for the Lib Dems now that Tim Farron has resigned. The panel also discuss Ipsos Mori’s data on ‘who voted for who’ at the General Election and what impact younger voters might have on British politics in the coming years. Listen here…
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This morning Ipsos MORI produced their regular analysis of what happened segment by segment at GE2017. The firm has been doing this at every election for many years and it is generally regarded as a leading source ahead of the full BES study. The most newsworthy element is that the very narrow range of turnout amongst those registered to vote. The young groups saw increases while the oldest one saw a decrease. It was this that deprived Mrs. May of…
The narrative of what drove the shock result in the general election is becoming well established. Those in the younger age segments turned out to vote on a scale that hadn’t been anticipated and they were much more pro LAB than CON. The result was that instead of losing seats to CON Corbyn’s LAB made gains off the Tories, the SNP and the LDs on a scale that alongside a handful of LD gains from CON caused Mrs May to…
What if Labour tried to form minority government? “That would be like herding chickens,” was how a member of the Shadow Cabinet responded when I suggested Labour’s leading campaigners should all be using the “weak and wobbly” counter to the Tory “strong and stable” slogan. I was delighted when, eventually, the phrase popped up in utterances from both Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. So, maybe there is someone in Team Corbyn with the chicken herding skills which will undoubtedly be…
New Survation voting poll for GMB has LAB 3% aheadCON 41%-1LAB 44% +4LD 6% =UKIP 2% -1Changes on Jun 5th — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2017 Why other pollsters are likely to show same trend when they start VI surveys again Given the precariousness of TMay’s parliamentary position we could be close to another general election yet only Survation has produced any published voting intention polls since June 8th. The firm starts from a strong point having done best…