Socialism is on the march and about to seize power in the UK, so many on the Labour left believe. This, argues Joff Wild, should give the Tories hope Socialism is on the march and about to seize power in the UK, so many on the Labour left believe. This If I were a Tory I would be loving that faint smell of Labour hubris in the morning. As I contemplated the wreckage of the general election, that grubby-looking deal…
This gives the Tories an effective majority of 15 A deal has been done. The Tories are to be propped up in Parliament by the 10 DUP MPs who have negotiated a £1bn deal for the province. So TMay’s party will be able to struggle on although the parliamentary arithmetic still looks tight and is nothing like as comfortable as during the 2010-2015 CON-LD coalition. We are going to see some very tight Commons votes with the opposition parties seeking…
Wikipedia Never before has main opposition party had such margins after an election We have now had three voting polls since the general election and all of them, as can be seen in the table above, have shown clear leads for Labour. This is highly unusual and almost unprecedented. Almost always the first polls after a general election see the winner doing better than it did in the voting on the day. Thanks to Mark Pack’s excellent Pollbase place we…
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How Betfair define “CON minority” opens this up As far as I can see there is just one GE2016 betting market still open – that on what will be the form of the new government. CON majority was clearly the huge favourite until 10pm on June 8th and since then CON minority has become the tight odds-on favourite. With bets like this it is vital that punters read the precise terms of the market before investing their cash. These are…
The structural weaknesses of May’s government will leave its impression on the public Only a fool would try to predict how this parliament will play out after all the extraordinary political upheavals and upsets this decade so far. So here goes. The central fact in British politics right now is that Jeremy Corbyn is unchallengeable. He will serve through to the next election (and perhaps beyond), unless he chooses to stand aside before it, of his own volition. He and…
The crimson tide is coming in The Conservatives are in a wretched state. Everything Theresa May has touched recently has turned to ashes. Jeremy Corbyn in his response to the Queen’s Speech stated that the government has no majority, no mandate and no plan. Jeremy Corbyn is right. Theresa May remains in office for now, a case study in faute de mieux. Everyone, including I suspect Theresa May herself, seems to recognise that the Age of May is concluded. But…
The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above. It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead. As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she…