But genuine gains from the Lib Dems and Labour did. Jeremy Corbyn would be prime minister today if the Scottish Tories had done as badly three weeks ago as they did in 2015 (or any of the previous four elections). Without the dozen gains north of the border, a deal with the DUP wouldn’t have given her the numbers and a deal with anyone else couldn’t have been done. It would have been game over. Given the different nature of…
Picture: The current political map of the UK (via the BBC) Britain is a geological seesaw. After the last ice age retreated, the release of the weight of the ice has resulted in the bedrock on the northern half of the island rebounding, forcing the southern half of the island as a consequence to sink. It also has a longstanding political north-south seesaw. The timescales are not quite as long term as the geological seesaw but they have proved enduring…
One of the features of living in a super LAB-CON marginal less than an hour from London that regularly changes hands is that you get a lot of attention at general elections. Corbyn’s first big outside visit after the election was called in April was to Bedford which was a regular port of call by David Cameron and earlier LAB leaders at GE10 and GE15. So what was striking about TMay’s GE17 campaign is that it was almost invisible here…
The big question is whether there’ll be a contest or will TMay hang on So TMay got her Queen’s Speech through the Commons with a majority of 14 thanks to the DUP and that probably reduces the immediate pressure on the PM. But without a majority it looks set to be an interesting time ahead. Unlike the CON-LD coalition the DUP obligation to vote with the Tories is limited to very specific issues and the chances are that there’ll be…
Electoral Calculus Will Team Arlene vote to make them Northern Ireland’s 2nd party One of the issues likely to come up next year is the boundary review and the reduction of Commons seats from 650 to 600 MPs. Martibn Baxter of the Electoral Calculus has produced the above projection of the implied GE17 based on the latest proposals. I thought it timely to publish this given that the DUP will be voting with the Tories this evening ensuring the successful…
Reappraising the polling that got rubbished by the so called experts Last night I watched again the Question Time leaders’ special with Corbyn and TMay from the University of York that took place on June 1st exactly a week before the election. On the night itself the PMs performance was well received particularly by right wing commentators. The only polling on this event, carried by Survation on the Saturday, had TMay doing badly and Corbyn doing well. The survey ,…
The news tonight that ex-coalition cabinet minister, Ed Davey, is not planning to stand for the LD leadership means that that former Business Secretary Secretary looks set to take over from Tim Farron as LD leader. Davey became the third prominent LD to announce he wasn’t going forward after Jo Swinson and Norman Lamb. The formal nomination process ends on July 20th which means that Vince will have to wait till then before taking the crown. As someone pointed out…
This appears to be between Davis and Hammond There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment. The race, if that is indeed what we re watching, seems to be polarising around the Brexit Secretary, David Davis and Chancellor Philip Hammond. If there was to be an early contest, and that…