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Category: General Election

The chart that shows general election campaigns don’t matter (usually)

The chart that shows general election campaigns don’t matter (usually)

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2017 election saw the biggest swing DURING an election campaign ever – uncertainty is the new normal pic.twitter.com/VVTCADtY0T — Ben Page (@benatipsos) July 13, 2017 One of the axioms of British politics is that general election campaigns don’t matter, and the stats in the above chart by Ben Page of Ipsos MORI does back that up, with sub margin of error changes during past campaigns but the 2017 general election campaign really didn’t stick to past conventions. The question was…

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Why people voted Labour or Tory at the general election

Why people voted Labour or Tory at the general election

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  YouGov have released some findings on why people voted Tory or Labour at the general election. After the Tory manifesto that was designed to annoy and upset every voter in the country it’s not surprising that Labour’s policies/manifestos scores higher than the Tories. What I find intriguing is how many people voted against Corbyn (both in absolute numbers and relative to Theresa May) which should alarm the Tories. If Labour are led by someone who isn’t quite so polarising…

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What the voters recall about the general election campaign

What the voters recall about the general election campaign

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YouGov have published some findings about what the voters remember about the campaign, they find that The Conservatives’ “bad” campaign was by the memory that stuck most in the mind of the public, at 23%. It was particulary high among Tory voters, at 27%, although it was still by far the most common answer given by Lib Dem (24%) and Labour voters (20%) too. It will doubtless provide cold comfort to Conservative sloganeers that the phrase “strong and stable” was the second…

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If or when Theresa May is replaced her successor shouldn’t hold a snap election (or even think about it)

If or when Theresa May is replaced her successor shouldn’t hold a snap election (or even think about it)

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Mrs May has probably ended any talk of or actual snap elections in the future by her successors The last ten years in British politics have been the most dramatic ten years I can recall in peace time. We’ve had, inter alia, the great financial crisis, the coalition government, the Scottish Independence referendum, the SNP tsunami, the Lib Dem wipe out of 2015, which saw David Cameron become the only Tory to win a majority in the last 25 years,…

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One of the architects of the worst general election campaign in history gives his thoughts on the campaign

One of the architects of the worst general election campaign in history gives his thoughts on the campaign

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It looks like it was Labour’s ground game was crucial Sir Lynton Crosby has spoken about the general election campaign which saw Mrs May squander David Cameron’s majority, The Guardian report that Crosby cautioned against a simplistic analysis of the result, saying commentary had exaggerated the significance of the youth vote. He said the failure of older voters to turn out for the election was just as significant. The pollster also warned that the rise of third-party campaigning for Corbyn…

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Forgot the overall GE2017 main party vote totals – it is CON & LAB’s relationship with each other that matters

Forgot the overall GE2017 main party vote totals – it is CON & LAB’s relationship with each other that matters

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Just a month to the day after the extraordinary general election many Tories, particularly those still loyal to the woman who caused their electoral disaster, continue to point to the overall 13.6m CON votes that were chalked up as though that had some great meaning. This is real straw clutching and in no way excuses her disastrous decision to break her promise to call an election three years early and then to lose the CON majority. Sure the Tory vote…

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Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government

Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government

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If Martin McGuiness could work with the DUP why couldn’t Jeremy Corbyn? That rhetorical question works the other way round too. If Jeremy Corbyn is to see private prediction to Michael Eavis at Glastonbury that he could be Prime Minister in six months fulfilled he can only get there with the combined votes of all the non-Tory parties – including the DUP. By contrast those 10 DUP votes were enough to give Theresa May an effective Commons majority. On the…

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One thing’s for sure post GE17 – incumbent PMs won’t risk skipping the TV debates again

One thing’s for sure post GE17 – incumbent PMs won’t risk skipping the TV debates again

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This means the debates are here to stay After the manifesto the other big avoidable mistake of TMay’s GE2017 campaign was the refusal to take part in TV leaders’ debates which became part of the UK political scene at GE2010. No doubt the decision by her campaign to avoid them was driven by the very comfortable position the Tories had in the polls and that they appeared to be on course for a big win. Initially the CON leader’s decision…

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