Browsed by
Category: General Election

The first voting poll since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion has LAB lead up to 5

The first voting poll since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion has LAB lead up to 5

Comments 0 Comment

LAB lead extend lead with Survation – most accurate pollster at GE17LAB 43% +2CON 38% =LD 7% -1UKIP 4% -2Change since mid July — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2017 The Sunday papers won’t make comfortable reading for Mrs May following her assertion during the week that she was not a quitter and wanted to fight the next general election as prime minister. Survation, the pollster that got closest with the June 8th general election result, has now got a…

Read More Read More

May’s comments on retirement are more about 2019 than 2022

May’s comments on retirement are more about 2019 than 2022

Comments 0 Comment

Her party will give her Brexit but not another election Theresa May might be on the other side of the world but she can no doubt still hear the cacophony of silence from her cabinet colleagues in support of her comment stating her desire to lead the Conservatives into the next election. As so often, what is not said is more revealing than what is. To be fair, the question of whether a leader intends to stand down within a…

Read More Read More

Corbyn now takes over the favourite slot in the next PM betting

Corbyn now takes over the favourite slot in the next PM betting

Comments 0 Comment

Oddschecker TMay’s successor as PM is a betting market we’ve not looked at for some time and the big development is that LAB leader, Jeremy Corbyn is now the favourite from a range of bookies. Much of this is down to the fact that there is no clear alternative to TMay as Tory leader though that could change during the coming party conference season. I’m not sure I’d agree with the betting and this isn’t a market I’ve had any…

Read More Read More

TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

Comments 0 Comment

.@nicholaswatt speaks to former Downing St adviser @CraigOliver100 about Theresa May's ambition to stay beyond the next election #newsnight pic.twitter.com/N1VnMGieoB — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) August 30, 2017 Feels like the reaction among Tory MPs to May saying she'll fight on is "Lol, you're not" not "Oh dear, better putsch her early". — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) August 30, 2017 Maybe the plan is to bring things to a head By announcing overnight her desire to carry on as CON leader and…

Read More Read More

Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point

Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point

Comments 0 Comment

The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error. The regular Brexit tracker from the firm sees those saying it was wrong with a 2% lead. Last month those saying it was right were 2% ahead. Again this is all margin of error stuff and there is no indication of any BrexRegrets. UPDATE ICM also sees narrowing of gap New ICM polls has LAB & CON level…

Read More Read More

New study finds that in the key general election marginals candidates with local links are likely to have an edge

New study finds that in the key general election marginals candidates with local links are likely to have an edge

Comments 0 Comment

New study finds that fewer than ? CON. MPs elected at GE17 had constituency links compared with ? LAB MPs – Timeshttps://t.co/SoZfdOd4d2 pic.twitter.com/Wwtx49mh4c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2017 86% of seats that changed hands at GE17 won by local candidates 35% higher than UK average https://t.co/SoZfdOd4d2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2017 There’s a fascinating report in the Times this morning linked to in the Tweets above about a study by the Think Tank, Demos, on the…

Read More Read More

Vince Cable slams TMay over bogus student immigration figures which “came on her watch”

Vince Cable slams TMay over bogus student immigration figures which “came on her watch”

Comments 0 Comment

Bogus student visa figures "happened on May's watch" https://t.co/jOsaNoVzox — Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) August 24, 2017 Coalition battles revived Vince Cable, the LD leader who as Coalition Business Secretary had responsibility for universities, has attacked TMay, following the news that student immigration figures are nothing like on the scale that the government had previously thought. As reported in the media earlier new figures have been published based on exit checks from UK ports, that show that 97% cent of foreign…

Read More Read More

How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election

How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election

Comments 0 Comment

Why I was wrong about Rudd Over the past few weeks when discussing Amber Rudd’s chances of succeeding TMay I have broadly dismissed those who have said the tightness of her majority in Hastings (346) rules her out of becoming leader. My argument had been that leaders generally do better in their own constituency than their party because of things like local pride. Not so has been the response of a couple of PBers who have been in touch to…

Read More Read More