The first voting poll since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion has LAB lead up to 5

The first voting poll since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion has LAB lead up to 5

The Sunday papers won’t make comfortable reading for Mrs May following her assertion during the week that she was not a quitter and wanted to fight the next general election as prime minister.

Survation, the pollster that got closest with the June 8th general election result, has now got a new poll out for the Mail on Sunday which sees the Labour lead move to five points.

It comes as politics resumes again following the summer break with the start, during the coming week, of the parliamentary process to enact the Bill that facilitates the UK’s extraction from the EU.

The margin that Labour has over the Conservatives is the biggest in any poll for two months and is in sharp contrast to the earlier recent polling from other firms which had the gap narrowing.

Brexit is clearly dominating everything and the poll also had a number of questions which are relevant to the Tories particularly following the apparent shift in Labour’s position to a more soft approach.

All this looks set to reinforce the leadership speculation as we move into conference season. The big question is whether there will be a challenge within the parliamentary Conservative Party to Theresa May’s leadership.

I remain of the view that the prime minister will step down in 2019 a few months after the Brexit finalisation but I do have an 8/1 bet that she could depart this year.

I am off on holiday to South West Spain tomorrow and there has been a long-standing tradition on PB that when I am there something very major happens.

Mike Smithson

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