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Category: General Election

Spread markets moves mean that the Tories could come top in England

Spread markets moves mean that the Tories could come top in England

The intriguing possibility of Labour winning the next General Election by a very small majority but with the Tories holding most seats in England is raised this morning by a further softening of the Labour position on the spread betting markets. The latest spreads are:- LAB 327-337 seats CON 243-253 LDs 52-57 Total seats in next House of Commons 646 Taking the mid-points in the spread a Labour total of 332 would give Tony Blair/Gordon Brown just nine more than…

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A hung Parliament or Labour majority of 114 – which pollster do YOU believe?

A hung Parliament or Labour majority of 114 – which pollster do YOU believe?

Political gamblers seeking to call the next UK General Election are faced now with totally different pictures from the two opinion poll firms that were most accurate in predicting the 2001 General Election. On the one hand is YouGov that is suggesting a vote split that would lead to a hung Parliament with Labour 23 seats short of an overall majority. On the other there is ICM which is predicting a vote split that will lead to Michael Howard’s Tories…

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A hung Parliament – Which direction would the Lib Dems go?

A hung Parliament – Which direction would the Lib Dems go?

With the Tories polling at between 34-39%, Labour finding it hard to get more than the mid-30s and the LDs on a solid 22% there’s just a chance that the next election could produce a hung Parliament. If that was the result what would happen? What deals would be done? What sort of Government would we have? This has the makings of a really interesting betting market – what will be the make up of the Government after the next…

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How Labour could win with just 32% of the votes

How Labour could win with just 32% of the votes

If Blair is considering an October election then the latest opinion poll figures, from Populus in the Times, could be seen as encouraging. But this is only because the next General Election will not be fought on a level playing field. The scales are tilted very firmly in favour of Labour. These are the figures together with the seat distribution, using Martin Baxter’s excellent online calculator, assuming a uniform national swing. LAB 34% – 346 seats CON 34% – 202…

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Is Blair thinking of an October General Election?

Is Blair thinking of an October General Election?

A fascinating piece by Michael Brown in today’s Independent on whether Blair might be considering going to the country in October this year. He argues that if Iraq continues to go badly and leads to John Kerry beating George W. Bush then this could have serious consequences for Tony Blair… “This scenario lies behind the growing speculation that Mr Blair might conceivably be planning a quick, cut-and-run election before the presidential contest, in order to pre-empt any embarrassing read across…

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It’s getting tighter for Labour

It’s getting tighter for Labour

The former Cambridge and now City mathematician, Martin Baxter, has cut his forecast of the Labour majority at the next General Election from 42 to just 30 seats. His April prediction is based on the March opinion polls and produces the tightest margin since Tony Blair came to power in 1997. CON 229 seats from 36.63% of the vote LAB 338 seats from 35.10% of the vote LDs 48 seats from 21.09% of the vote. Baxter has factored in the…

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Can you profit from the bookmakers’ Scottish confusion?

Can you profit from the bookmakers’ Scottish confusion?

The bookies seem to have got their sums wrong over their General Election Seats Won Markets by ignoring the seat changes in Scotland. At the next election the number of Westminster seats is being reduced from 659 to 646 following a Boundary Commission review to bring the size of Scottish constituencies into line with those in the rest of the country. This is a long overdue reform that could have a big impact on the final result. With 55 of…

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Could Michael Howard win England?

Could Michael Howard win England?

To liven up betting on the General Election there should be market on which party will get most seats in England. This could be an easier target for the Tories because the way that Westminster seats are distributed means that they need to have a votes margin of at least six full percentage points to become the next Government – Labour is there even if it is three points behind. Michael Howard has shown himself to be ruthless and already…

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