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Category: General Election

Could this man change the way we look at the General Election?

Could this man change the way we look at the General Election?

Martin Baxter is considering incorporating the tactical vote question The former Cambridge and City maths expert, Martin Baxter, (above) has announced on his site that he is considering trying to embrace an element on tactical voting within his famous Commons Seat Calculator. Over the years Martin has built up a formidable reputation with his calculator which is now the authoritive source for people wanting to work out what different vote shares mean in terms of Commons seats. His site also…

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Could Michael Howard win by conceding that he will lose?

Could Michael Howard win by conceding that he will lose?

Will the Tories’s new Campaign Chief adopt his winning Australian strategies? The appointment of the Australian campaigning guru, Lynton Crosby, as the Conservative’s Election campaign director should cause all political gamblers to look closely at their General Election betting. For Crosby was the strategist behind the remarkable campaign in 1996 when the Australian Liberal party pulled off a surprise victory in the General Election there by all but conceding that the party had no chance of beating the Government of…

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Could Martin Bell do a Tatton in Sedgefield?

Could Martin Bell do a Tatton in Sedgefield?

bbc Is Tony Blair in danger of going the way of Neil Hamilton? With all the focus on the White House Race we have yet to catch up with with the plan by Martin Bell or another prominent TV journalist to run against Tony Blair in his Sedgefield constituency. The idea would be to repeat what Bell did in Tatton in 1997 where the Lib Dems and Labour pulled out to give him a clear run against Neil Hamilton. If…

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Are there any good General Election bets?

Are there any good General Election bets?

bbc Is the best bet not to bet? With the UK General Election perhaps only seven months away it’s becoming harder and harder to find any good value bets. On the main Who’ll get most seats? the best that can be had on Labour is 1/5. It’s hard to call for any other party but if the pollsters are exaggerating Labour by as much as they were in 2001 then it is just possible that the bet might be a…

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How’s Tony Blair going to steal the Lib Dems’ clothes?

How’s Tony Blair going to steal the Lib Dems’ clothes?

Would a proper apology take the wind out of Charles Kennedy’s sails? Given that Tony Blair is the master of stealing the policies of his opponents how is he going to deal with the Lib Dem threat? Just what announcement can we expect in the run up to the Election that will do for Charles Kennedy’s party what the EU referendum announcement did for the Tories? An intriguing thought is that he could, with his usual impeccable timing and with…

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Is Michael Howard really in a big hole?

Is Michael Howard really in a big hole?

Are Peter Kellner’s benchmarks correct? The political commentator and head of the YouGov polling organisation, Peter Kellner, has posted an article asking this question – How deep a hole are the Tories in? He starts:- The short answer is: very. Here are some benchmarks by which to judge the Conservatives. Their vote share in 1997: 31%. In 2001: 33%. Needed to form a bare majority in the House of Commons: at least 40%. Needed six months before the start of…

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As the new Parliament buiding opens – remember to factor in Scotland

As the new Parliament buiding opens – remember to factor in Scotland

What will Westminster-lite do for the spread markets? Saturday’s opening of the Scottish Parliament building is a timely reminder that the boundary changes north of the border at Westminster will have a big impact at the General Election, particuarly on the number of Labour seats. Until now Scotand has sent 72 MPs to Westminster from constituencies that have an average of 55,000 electors compared with 70,000 in England. Boundary changes have reduced this to 59 and it’s been worked out…

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What the papers say

What the papers say

WHITE HOUSE LATEST:….POLLS….PRICES….ELECTORAL VOTES With the ending of the party conference season in the UK and the US election barely three weeks away there’s lots of meat for political gamblers in the papers this morning. The Sunday Times’s Andrew Sullivan, in our view the best commentator on the US scene, has a good description of how the White House race is going and the impact of the TV debates. His piece starts- Presidential campaigns have issues, candidates and polls. They…

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