Markets look set to move further to Labour Further evidence of improving Labour fortunes comes in today’s ICM poll in the Guardian which has:- LAB 38: CON 30: LD 22: UKIP 2 The story is online. The margin is one per cent less than an ICM poll last month which had Labour on 39% to the Tories on 30%. The Guardian in its myopic style never seems to recognise polls which it did not commission, even from ICM, and tells…
What are the General Election mathematics? With the prolonged fox-hunting debate now down to the final day the question for general election punters and predictors is which party will benefit? Will the number of votes gained by Labour from those opposed to hunting exceed those gained by the Tories from the pro-hunting lobby. And would these people have voted for their parties anyway? This is not an easy call and the two factions might balance each other out. When we…
Has the Indy swapped its polling winner for a polling loser? A new poll in the Independent today by NOP gives Labour a 9% lead. The shares are:- CON 30: LAB 39: LD 20. Allowing for turnout, however, the Strathclyde University elections expert, John Curtice, says the lead drops by 4% amongst those certain to vote. [UPDATE] We have now been told that the poll was weighted by stated past vote. NOP have only just returned to conducting national UK…
Can “below the radar” campaigning give Michael Howard a chance? A good piece by Brian Wheeler on BBC News online on Lynton Crosby – the Australian Campaigning guru who has been hired by the Tories to run the coming election campaign. It notes:- The 48-year-old has been described as a “master of the dark political arts” and “the Australian Karl Rove,” a reference to George Bush’s legendary campaign adviser. In 2002, Australian newspaper The Age described Mr Crosby as “one…
Can Blair take a lead from George Bush? No doubt re-assured by George Bush’s re-election in the US Tony Blair was reported in the Independent at the weekend to have decided to face the Iraq issue head on in the coming campaign. Tony Blair has decided to confront opponents of the Iraq war head on by placing the “war on terror” at the heart of Labour’s campaign in the coming general election. The Prime Minister has privately admitted that attempts…
Good news for punters who want to bet on how many seats the parties will win but are reluctant to get involved with the risks of spread betting. Bet365 have just re-opened markets on the seat totals for the three main parties and you can bet online. As we get closer to the Election other bookmakers will offer similar markets. Labour seats won at General Election. 360 + 6/4 0 – 335 15/8 336 – 343 9/2 344 – 351…
With the recent focus on the White House race and the UK opinion polls all over the place hardly anybody is putting money on any of the General Election markets. With less than six months to go before the likely date, 05/05/05, the amounts matched on the Betfair elections markets have remained almost static since the party conference season and the Hartlepool by-election. On the spread markets it appears to be the same. News like dramatic polls shifts this week…
Baxter calculation = Labour 162 majority Tony Blair is heading for a majority of 162 if the party vote shares in latest MORI poll were applied on a uniform national swing basis. The shares with seat projects from Martin Baxter calculator are:- LAB 39% 404 seats CON 29% 148 seats LD 22% 65 seats The surveying took place in the final week in October and the results have only just become available. They represent a huge swing to Labour following…