The biggest lead since the Iraq War February’s NOP opinion poll for the Independent has LAB 42: CON 30: LD 18 in figures that look similar to those produced by Populus last week and will do nothing to reinforce Tony Blair’s weekend warning about the Tories being a threat We will put our normal variation numbers on these figures when we have been able to confirm them. Last month there was a muddle at the paper when two writers were…
bbc Isn’t Blair’s “the Tories are a threat” claim hard to swallow? With the pollsters showing Tory deficits of between 1-9% and an electoral geography that means that the Labour party will win most seats on a uniform swing even if it’s 5% behind it’s no wonder that the balance of money on the betting markets is on the Tories getting less than 200 seats. For a majority they need 324 MPs. One of the many problems is that the…
This is our first round up of the latest prices showing all the main markets. Where more than one bookmaker is offering prices we give the best one from our betting odds search engine. Click on the market name for more details. Party winning most seats Labour: 3/25 Conservative: 6/1 (8.8/1 – Betting Exchange) Liberal Democrat: 66/1 (139/1 – Betting Exchange) A Hung Parliament? Yes: 7/2 No : 1/6 General Election Date Apr – Jun 2005 : 0.13/1 Jan –…
Introducing Mr Tangerine Man and other videos A novel aspect of the coming election campaign will be the flash video animations that are being produced and circulated by email and the internet. Quite what political impact they will have we do not know but this is a form of communication that could engage new groups of voters. The best – and one which will be enjoyed across the political spectrum – is Eclectech’s Mr. Tangerine Man – an amusing movie…
But how long will the Tories have to wait? On election night there’ll be a betting market that is even more of a foregone conclusion than that on Labour winning most seats – the one on which constituency will declare first. And given the amazing performance of Sunderland South last time it’s hard to see any other seat getting a look in. For the declaration of Chris Mullin’s victory from Wearside came at just 10-43 pm – three minutes faster…
According to the Independent on Sunday’s main story this morning Labour’s campaign chief, Alan Milburn, warned delegates at a private meeting at the party conference in Gateshead that the party had to “fight dirty” in order to avoid defeat. The report by Andy McSmith and Francis Elliott states: Alan Milburn secretly told Labour activists yesterday that the party needs to keep up its “dirty tricks” campaign to raise public interest in the coming general election, or see the Government’s 161-seat…
Updated 0930 But System 3 shows a different picture A YouGov poll of Scottish voters in Scotland on Sunday today has with changes from a similar poll north of the border in June – LAB 33 (-4), SNP 20 (-2), LD 20 (+4), CON 19 (+2). The paper calculates that, on a uniform swing, that of Scotland’s 59 seats Labour would get 37, the Lib Dems 13, the SNP 6 and the Conservatives 3. So even with less than a…
updated 0730 bbc Why is Labour’s “Spring” conference taking place in early February? When it comes to acts of deception over the timing of elections Tony Blair’s government has got form. Just six months ago Downing Street was briefing heavily that the date of the Harlepool by-election was going to be on Thursday October 7th. This was reported in the press and was widely believed. But when the announcement came in there was a huge surprise – instead of the…