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Category: General Election

Could Howard make trouble for Blair south of the border?

Could Howard make trouble for Blair south of the border?

Let’s liven up the betting Notwithstanding yesterday’s BES poll giving the Tories a 2.8% lead amongst those “certain to vote” the weight of polling evidence is that the chances of Michael Howard’s party winning most seats, let alone gaining a Westminster majority, are very slim indeed. For even if the pollsters are overstating Labour’s leads by as much as the 6.6% of 2001 the polls are doggedly showing that Tories are still behind and even if they managed to get…

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Spread-betting markets move to Labour

Spread-betting markets move to Labour

As we predicted last night the ICM poll has resulted in a sharp move back to Labour on the spread-betting markets. The spread bookmakers have marked the party up and marked the Tories and Lib Dems down. There’s been almost no movement, however, on the Spreadfair spread betting exchange where prices respond to what individual punters put up not on what the bookmaker decides. IG Index – LAB 353-358 (+3): CON 197-202 (-2): LD 66-69 (-2) Spreadfair – LAB 350…

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What ICM giveth ICM also taketh away

What ICM giveth ICM also taketh away

But British Electoral Survey has Tory lead of 2.8% amongst those “certain to vote” After the euphoria in the Tory ranks following the February ICM poll it’s is down to earth with a bang after the publication of this month’s survey. What seemed an attainable gap of just three points in February is now eight points and we are back in Labour landslide land. But the only blot on the horizon for Tony Blair’s party was news last night of…

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ICM puts Labour’s lead up 5%

ICM puts Labour’s lead up 5%

UPDATED 2245 Restoring the smile on Tony Blair’s face The ICM March survey for the Guardian tomorrow gives a real boost to the Labour campaign and shows a big increase since the last survey a month ago. The figures are:- LAB 40 (+3): Con 32 (-2): LD 20 (-1). [But the BBC’s Newsnight programme has reported tonight that a poll by the British Election Survey has the Tories ahead amongst those who are certain to vote. We have not been…

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Will you be a candidate on May 5th?

Will you be a candidate on May 5th?

Tell us more about yourself From the comments on our busy discussion forums it’s clear that a lot of Politicalbetting “regulars” are PPCs. If you are one of those then please could you drop me a note and send me a picture (smallish please). I’m sure that others on the site will be interested to hear about you and to see what you are like. It will also add to the interest on election night and we might be able…

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ICM: Labour support down amongst ethic minorities

ICM: Labour support down amongst ethic minorities

But what will be the turnout? An ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s support among Britain’s minority ethnic voters has fallen sharply since the last general election. Even so the party still enjoys a commanding lead with these sections of the electorate The poll shares from the survey were: LAB 58: LD 23: CON 14 The Labour figure is significantly lower than the 75% who backed Tony Blair’s party in the 2001 general election. There’s no reason…

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Who’ll present the next budget?

Who’ll present the next budget?

1 If it’s not Gordon Brown – then who? The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, has created a interesting new market on who will present the next budget. What’s good about it is that it raises so many issues:- Will Labour win with a decisive majority? Probably, but there’s just a chance that they might falter. If so will Gordon Brown – 4/7 – get replaced or be promoted? If Brown became PM who would he pick as HIS Chancellor? Could it…

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Is this the way the Tory campaign is going to go?

Is this the way the Tory campaign is going to go?

How Lynton Crosby helped another Howard to win 4 elections in Australia An interesting feature in the Guardian today by Sandra Laville on the methods of Lynton Crosby – the Australian who has been drafted in by Michael Howard to run the Tory campaign – gives a sense of what we might expect from the Tories in the final 45 days of this campaign. Based on interviews with those who have worked with and against Crosby during his four succesful…

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