Big boost for Blair north of border Huge changes in public opinion in Scotland in just 17 days are recorded in a Scottish Opinion Poll in today’s Daily Record. The figures are with changes on the last SOP reported here just over two weeks ago are:- LAB 52 (+14): CON 16 (+1): LD 12 (-11): SNP 17 (+1). In that last poll in mid-March SOP had the Lib Dems up a massive 12% and Labour down 10% so today’s figures…
Earlier this morning a former colleague of Lynton Crosby in Australia, Simon Bush, posted a comment on an article about the Tory campaign chief that we had published two months ago. This referred to a complaint he had made to the Times. Because it was posted on such an old file we thought it a good idea to give the comment greater prominence here. I have read with interest your piece on Crosby and his legal notice to the Times…
Does “Tax and Spend” have public support? The economy and taxation are set to take centre stage in the election campaign with three national papers leading this morning that for the first time in more than a decade average household incomes are on the decline – the direct result of tax increases. This will bring to a head the central philosophical difference between the two main parties which was the main reason behind the Howard Flight sacking. The Telegraph, Times…
Will there be Flight-style sackings of the 17 who’ve signed the anti- Iraq ticket? With the Tory leader, Michael Howard, under pressure for being too tough over Howard Flight’s comments on tax how is Tony Blair going to deal with dissent within his own party by a group MPs who have signed up to making the Iraq war a key “issue of trust” at the general election. According to the Independent this morning 17 of them have signed a declaration…
Has your Tory candidate passed the Ashcroft test? Is your Tory PPC one of the lucky ones who are on the “Bearwood List†– a special group of candidates who are said to have been hand-picked by the former Conservative party treasurer and Belize-based multimillionaire, Lord Ashcroft, to receive extra attention and money to fight this election The chosen ones are said to be in seats the Tories must hold or win and their campaigns have benefited by donations reported…
Confusing polls leave punters – confused If the polls continue to be all over the place we might have to wait until Chris Mullin’s declaration in Sunderland South before we get any idea at all about how this election is going. Last time this result came at a 10.43 pm – less than three-quarters an hour after the polls had closed and with so much civic pride at stake it’s hard to seem them not winning the declaration race again….
Do Communicate Research polls overstate Labour? Yesterday’s Communicate Research poll in the Independent on Sunday suggesting that Labour is doing even better than at the 2001 General Election has provoked a lot of debate on how the pollster carries out its surveys. For ever since the firm began polling for the paper we’ve raised questions about the CR methodology which we believe overstates Labour and understates the the Tories and Lib Dems. A major challenge for telephone pollsters is finding…
Could winning the popular vote be Michael Howard’s consolation prize? If the poll trends stay where they are at the moment then it is possible that the post-election political environment will be dominated by whether Labour supporters turnout in the 450-500 seats where their vote won’t make a difference. Quite simply if enough Labour supporters stay away from the polls in these seats then the party could be second to the Tories in terms of overall votes even though it…