No sign yet of a let-up in the Cameron honeymoon In the first posting of 2006, just nineteen days ago, we noted that the Cantor Spreadfair General Election – Commons seat spreads market opened the year on CON 260-267: LAB 296-303: LD 53-57. Taking the mid-points the collective view of punters was CON 265.5: LAB 299.5: LD 55 seats. In this form of gambling the number of seats a party gets becomes like a share price. If you think that…
…the General Election gap is closing While all the focus has been on the Lib Dem leadership the question of which party will win most seats at the General Election, as reflected by the best betting exchange prices, continues to see the Tories narrowing the gap with Labour. The current implied probability, based on best prices, has Labour on 53.7% and the Tories at 46.7%. Note that the betting is on which party wins most seats and not on whether…
The Daily Telegraph is not happy It was this site in May 2005 that first talked of the Tories having a “clause 4 moment”. Then we used it in the context of choosing Ken Clarke which we thought would have “symbolic importance” because of the long Tory history of splits over the EU. The way that the new Tory leader has decided to make the NHS the subject of his first major policy pronouncement reflects his desire to make this…
A round-up of the main markets General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48. Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1. General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor…
PB.C Labour General Election Index down to 55% The spate of opinion polls following David Cameron’s election as Tory Leader of December 6th has reinforced the betting market assessment of Labour’s chances of winning most seats at the next General Election. From a peak of more than 66% during the Labour conference in September the implied probability based on best betting prices has now dropped to below 55%. Unless there is a Labour recovery in the polls in the New…
Poll boost as Cameron starts the leadership cycle A YouGov poll taken yesterday and today for Sky News has with changes on the last survey from the pollster last month CON 36: LAB 36: LD 18 The survey comes on good day for the controversial internet pollster. YouGov’s final poll of Tory members for the leadership contest was within one per cent. To another question in in the latest poll “The next general election will probably not be held until…
But the Cameron-hype has yet to move punters In the final Politicalbetting General Election Index before David Cameron takes over the Tory leadership there has just been a slight move, less than 0.2% on the week, in our implied probability calculation based on best betting prices in the Labour winning most seats markets. But the pre-result publicity hype for Cameron has yet to get gamblers reaching for their credit cards. As the chart shows there has been a drop in…
YouGov and pensions row fail to dampen markets Punters on the “which party will win most General Election seats” markets are taking a slightly more optimistic view of Labour’s chances in spite of the YouGov poll showing a 6% drop in the party’s lead and the ongoing row over pensions policy. PB.C’s weekly index is based on the best betting odds available on Labour and is presented in terms of implied probability of it securing most seats at the next…