Boost for Blair as MPs prepare to vote on Education Bill According to Channel 4 News the March ICM poll to be published tomorrow in the Guardian shows a big move back to Labour and has the party back in the lead for the first time since David Cameron became Tory leader. The top-line figures announced on the programme had with changes on last month: CON 34 (-3): LAB 37 (+3): LD 21 (nc). The last time Labour enjoyed a…
Progress Yes – but where’s the next 5% going to come from? On Thursday David Cameron completed his first 100 days as Conservative leader and it’s perhaps a good moment to look at how he’s doing and whether his party is any nearer to power. The above chart illustrates the implied probability of which party will win most seats at the next General Election based on best prices on the betting exchanges. It shows a very significant move to the…
Are the Tories onto something by branding Brown as “unpleasant”? I very much doubt if the following statement will receive universal acclaim on PB.C – but with the single exception of three-times election winner Tony Blair I rate the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, as the top political strategist in British politics today. He’s very much the brains behind the Cameron team and there can be little doubt that his attack this week on “Brown’s unpleasantness” was pre-meditated and designed to…
But Labour and Tories level pegging on main voting intention The March Populus Poll in the Times has the following top-line voting intention with comparisons on a month ago: CON 35%(-2): LAB 35%(-1): LD 20%(+2). So in terms of lead the Tories and Labour are back to an even position after the Tories were briefly ahead last month. In recent months Populus has been showing Labour doing better against the Tories than the other pollsters with regular monthly slots in…
Polling boost for Chancellor’s wider role The first voting intention poll on how Brown would do against Cameron for two months is out today and shows that Labour and the Tories would be level-pegging on 38% each with the Lib Dems on 13% Unlike last week’s ICM survey in the News of the World and the Sunday Times YouGov poll three weeks ago today’s poll asked a specific voting intention question taking account of the Lib Dems and other parties….
..but the Dunfermline victor down 8 points on General Election Lots more for poll watchers this morning with a new YouGov poll showing with changes on the last survey a fortnight ago CON 37%(-2): LAB 39%(-1): LD 15%(+2). On the Lib Dem leadership race the poll shows that amongst all voters Campbell was backed by 18%, Hughes by 16% and Huhne by just 10%. Among party supporters it was Hughes 34%, Campbell 21% Huhne 13%. This has caused a little…
Anthony Wells – “Tories need a 7.1% swing to secure a majority” The founder of UK PollingReport, Anthony Wells, (seen with Guido at last month’s PB.C party), has today published a down-loadable guide to the new parliamentary boundaries. Anybody tempted to bet on the Tories securing most seats at the General Election should read it because according to Anthony’s study Labour would have won 10 seats fewer at the last election, the Tories 14 seats more and the Lib Dems…
Meanwhile the money piles on Ming Less than 24 hours after having to pull out of the Lib Dem leadership race a bookmaker has opened market on whether Mark Oaten will retain his seat at the General Election. The opening prices are 4/7 that he will and 5/4 that he won’t. This is an interesting bet because if the Tories do manage to sustain a recovery then Lib Dem seats like Winchester could be vulnerable. Oaten is a formidable campaigner…