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Category: General Election

Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

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And will young voter enthusiasm be retained? Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election. The boundaries, the lack of any discernable progress in Scotland and the ongoing blowback from Corbyn’s cack-handed handling of the antisemitism issue are going to make it hard. This thread is about another potential challenge – the changes in…

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Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

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Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns I’m not sure when the next general election is, I can see the next general election happening anywhere from this autumn to May 2022. You can see how the Brexit negotiations and votes therein can lead to an early election. I’m fairly certain the Tories…

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A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed it could

A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed it could

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FPTP is not an insuperable barrier in the right conditions Anyone remember the Pro Euro Conservatives? The Party was formed by two former Tory MEPs opposed to the direction that William Hague was taking the party on Europe. After a good deal more media interest than was due for a tiny splinter party – mainly, presumably, because it allowed a new angle on the never-ending internal Tory conflict on Europe – they polled 1.3% at the 1999 European elections, lost…

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If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings

If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings

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Table – Commons Library But recent polls suggest LAB will lose Scottish seats The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is in Scotland for a big speech at today’s Edinburgh television festival and more importantly to try to revive the party north of the border where under Ed Miliband in 2015 it was virtually wiped out. Then LAB’s Scottish contingent of MPs was reduced from 41 seats to a single MP. At the general election last year some recovery was made and…

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ICM poll: Tories would be worse off if either BoJo or Moggsy succeeds TMay

ICM poll: Tories would be worse off if either BoJo or Moggsy succeeds TMay

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Tories better off with May than any other leader, poll suggests | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/gf5TKz7zs9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2018 And the Washington Post describes TMay as “A Great PM” Those of us who were around following the polls in 2007 remember how the succession of Gordon Brown as Labour leader was going to undermine the red team. Poll after poll found LAB’s position deteriorating when Brown name was mentioned and I certainly took that on…

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Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

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The system bias is now strongly pro-CON We all recall that at the 2005 general election Tony Blair’s Labour won the GB vote by a margin of just 3% but that was enough to give them an overall majority of 64. There was little doubt that the electoral system then favoured the red team. Things have changed dramatically with the collapse of the LDs and the post-IndyRef rise of the SNP. Even without the proposed new boundaries the electoral system…

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That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line

That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line

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An outlier or the a sign of the trend? One of the problems with polling analysis is that the outliers tend to get much more publicity and attention than those that are broadly in line with everybody else. We saw that with the latest YouGov poll showeding Labour down at its lowest level since the general election four Points behind the Conservatives. So I thought it a good idea to try to put it into context by reproducing the latest…

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The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same national vote shares

The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same national vote shares

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GB vote split C38/L38/LD10 on new boundaries: CON 40 seats ahead This makes Corbyn’s task much harder One of the big political developments that could have a huge impact on the outcome of the next general election will come in the next two or three months when the final report of the Boundaries Commission comes out. Under what was agreed by Parliament seven years ago the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 and each constituency will…

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