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Category: General Election

Labour nerves send spreads down four seats

Labour nerves send spreads down four seats

Which way will the market go next? After moving to its highest level for more than a year following the Labour’s solid poll progress there’s been a move back since yesterday’s events in the Commons. The Spreadfair Commons seat spreads are now CON 271.1-274.9: LAB 287-291: LDs 48.1-53.6. Earlier in the week Labour reached 291-294 seats. With this form of betting punters buy and sell the number of seats they think the parties will get at the election. You make…

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Brown vs Cameron – the first PMQs

Brown vs Cameron – the first PMQs

Everyone says PMQs don’t matter…..but? Just two days short of nineteen months after he became leader of the Tory party David Cameron faces Gordon Brown in the Commons at noon for their first PMQs. The sense of occasion is slightly less because of the exchanges yesterday on the constitutional changes. This is probably much more important for Cameron rather than Brown for, inevitably, governments can to a large extent set the news agenda. With the opinion polls taking a bit…

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Should the Tories be relieved by Populus?

Should the Tories be relieved by Populus?

What will the gap settle down at? One of the things you should never do is compare a survey from one pollster with one from another pollster and then try to suggest that there is some trend. Each of the surveys carried out by the five main UK firms use different approaches so that concluding that there has been movement when one from one survey from one firm is different from another from a different firm is simply not valid….

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What happens when Cameron’s on the telly again?

What happens when Cameron’s on the telly again?

Could now be the moment to sell Labour? Over the past six months I’ve been trying to make money on the general election spread markets by buying and selling the number of Labour seats. The art is to try to anticipate the polls because they drive punter sentiment. And what drives the polls, of course, is the media and we have just gone through almost two months when Labour has been almost the only story in town. Once the novelty…

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Is it worth betting on an early general election?

Is it worth betting on an early general election?

New spread market: How many weeks to go? Spread-betting works best when it is linked to a specific numerical outcome such as “how many seats will Labour get?” or “how many states will the Democrats take in the 2008 White House Race?”. You look at the prices and decide whether the total will be lower, in which case you sell, or higher in which case you buy. You choose how much you want to bet and that becomes your stake…

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How 54% of voters will get the news this morning?

How 54% of voters will get the news this morning?

What do today’s front pages suggest might happen? Reproduced above are the front pages of the four main tabloids that will greet millions of people this morning. This includes those who buy the paper and those who just have fleeting glances at news-stands and in newsagents shops the length and breadth of the land. The hostile front page of the Express compares with the welcome it gave Blair in 1997 and the support for Labour in 2001. But the paper…

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The Brown Era – the opening prices

The Brown Era – the opening prices

Will he lead Labour to a fourth victory This post is partly for the record so that we can refer back to what the betting prices on the next general election were within Gordon’s first hour at Number 10. I must admit that I cannot read this and I have now closed down the buy spread bet on Labour which I bought a month ago at 271 seats. Will he do it? Will Cameron return to the early form? I’m…

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Tory lead moves to 5% with Communicate Research

Tory lead moves to 5% with Communicate Research

Has Brown been hurt by the Ashdown cabinet row? With every bit of detail in every poll being scrutinised to the nth degree at the moment there’s very disappointing news for Labour this morning with the June poll by Communicate Research in the Independent. After the Ipsos-Mori survey showing them 3% they must have been hoping that other pollsters would follow suit. The topline CR figures with with changes from May survey are CON 37%(+2): LAB 32%(+1): LD 18%(-1) –…

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