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Category: General Election

How does this square with Brown’s “no election” statement?

How does this square with Brown’s “no election” statement?

Will this put the election retreat back on the agenda? The main lead in the Guardian this morning confirms how serious Labour was about going to the country in late October or early November and could provide further ammunition for the Tories as they seek to attack Brown. For according to the paper “nearly a million pounds” was spent in the run-up compared with just £200,000 by the Tories. The report notes that three million letters had been printed and…

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Can Brown maintain union funding AND stop Ashcroft?

Can Brown maintain union funding AND stop Ashcroft?

Is party funding about to become the next battle-ground? This is Michael Ashcroft who in this year’s Sunday Times Rich List was placed in position 87 with an estimated wealth of £800m. He’s a major donor to the Tory party and before the 2005 general election, as was reported here, he hand-picked a group of Tory candidates in marginal constituencies and then was responsible for providing extra attention and funding to help them with their campaigns. This morning he is…

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Should the Tories be fearing Nick Clegg?

Should the Tories be fearing Nick Clegg?

How will the polls be affected by a LD resurgence We have not had any national polls since the dramatic announcement by Ming Campbell but my guess is that when we do we’ll see the third party increase its shares from the terrible lows that it has experienced in recent weeks. For one thing that Ming’s resignation has done has been to get his party onto the bulletins once again – and usually the more the Lib Dems are in…

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Should you bet on another pre-election casualty?

Should you bet on another pre-election casualty?

What’s the chance of either Dave or Gord being ousted? One of the bets I placed in the immediate aftermath of the Brown “no election” declaration was in Betfair’s “Next General Election – party leaders” market. Here you have to predict which of the Ming, Gord and Dave will still be there on polling day and at the time I suggested betting against, by laying, all three still being in post. That bet seemed to offer the most options and…

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Where the next election will be decided

Where the next election will be decided

A guest article by Blair Freebairn The Pirahã tribe of the Amazon has words for one, two and many. Number-wise that’s it. The count for an STV Pirahã election would be fun. The Romans didn’t have the digit zero and their arithmetic was mind-bogglingly horrible; yet imperial Rome seemed to muddle through. Yet all languages seem to have the same basic 10 words for colours. Maps have been around since before writing let alone number systems. We are not hard…

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Was last week the start of Brown’s long goodbye?

Was last week the start of Brown’s long goodbye?

Or are Labour still on course for a fourth term? The last couple of weeks have been among the most eventful in recent British politics, with the election that never was, the “magpie” pre-budget report, Brown’s mauling at PMQs and the polls changing rapidly from an 11-point Labour lead to a 7-point Conservative one. The key question is whether we have reached a tipping point and it’s all downhill for Labour from now on, with Brown following Callaghan and Douglas-Home…

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Seven Daves from ICM

Seven Daves from ICM

Best Conservative score since 1992 with ICM An ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph has the Conservatives on 43, Labour on 36, and the Lib Dems on 14. Changes on the previous ICM poll are +5, -2, -2, representing a swing of 3.5% to the Tories. However, Brown still leads Cameron 52-32 on the strongest leader question, while Labour leads by 47-36 on the economy. Other findings are that 66 per cent of those surveyed want a referendum on the…

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Is Gord still being given the benefit of the doubt?

Is Gord still being given the benefit of the doubt?

But those 40% plus Tory shares should be worrying Too often, I think, those with a passion for following the fortunes of our great parties seem to expect instant reactions from the polls to the events they see daily in the papers and on their TV screens. So Brown has been having a torrid few days and yet Labour is at 38% in the latest Mori poll trailing by just 3%. That could have been a lot worse and I…

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