But why has the Indy been sitting on the survey for a week? What is almost certainly the final poll of 2007, ComRes for the Independent, is published this morning and the most surprising element is that the field-work took place during the weekend before last and so pre-dates the latest YouGov and ICM surveys. Quite why the paper has been holding on to this for so long is not clear but it does mean that the poll takes no…
Andy Cooke challenges the received wisdom One of the most widely held items of received wisdom is “The opinion polls always swing back towards the Government as the Election approaches”. That mid-term blues will always overemphasise an Opposition’s performance in the polls and these will wear off as the Parliament winds down towards the next election. Received wisdom can well be right – there is always a reason somewhere along the line that any given fact ends up as received…
Is there any way that Brown can turn this round? Reproduced above is the December YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph which took place from Monday to Wednesday when the Lib Dems were getting a lot of coverage over their leadership election. The chart shows comparisons with Daily Telegraph polls not the last published survey by the internet pollster which was in the Sunday Times five days ago. That produces the following changes CON 43% (-2): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Did the controversial “named leader” question get it right all along? The above table is reproduced from UK Polling Report’s record of the controversial “named leader” questions that several pollsters asked during the period between David Cameron’s election as Tory leader in December 2005 and Gordon’s arrival in June 2007. These findings proved to be highly controversial and every time I featured them on the site they came under fierce attack. For what was being presented was dynamite. For on…
Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown? On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new…
Tories move to 45% share with the internet pollster A staggering poll by YouGov for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories 13 points ahead of Labour on 45% – a level that the party has not been at in decades and would mean a substantial majority at the general election. The shares are with comparisons on the last YouGov poll nine days ago are: CON 45% (+2): LAB 32% (nc): LD 14% (nc) Putting these shares into the Anthony Wells…
Is the opposition right to focus on the man and not policies? It’s becoming apparent, as the 2007 political year comes to a close, that both the Tories and Lib Dems have managed to make the big issue not a particular policy or strategic direction but Gordon Brown himself. Almost as though they were acting in tandem both David Cameron and Lib Dem stand-in, Vince Cable, have launched lob after lob against Gordon’s personality and judging by the way events…
It’s all change for my spread betting positions Having just read many comments in the previous thread, watched on TV the excruciating embarrassment of Gord’s late arrival in Lisbon for his solo treaty signing, and had a half hour phone conversation with a long-standing friend who is a Labour loyalist and former constituency chair the question arises as to whether today might be a turning point. For the message that’s coming through loud and clear is that Downing Street’s strategy…