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Category: General Election

We’re back to a double digit lead with Ipsos-Mori

We’re back to a double digit lead with Ipsos-Mori

But why is this against the trend of other recent surveys? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Sun today goes completely against the run of other recent surveys and reports that Cameron’s Tories now have a 10% lead. The following are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster before Christmas – CON 42(nc): LAB 32(-3): LD 15(+1) After a period when Populus, YouGov and ICM have all reported Labour deficits of within 5% today’s survey…

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What do these figures mean for Dave and Gord?

What do these figures mean for Dave and Gord?

Is the new leadership turning the party around? I’ve long argued that the battle for the next election is about the centre ground and, in particular whether Labour can recover many of the votes that switched to the Lib Dems in 2005 and how far Cameron’s Tories can go in attracting and retaining supporters of Clegg’s party. Reproduced above is from the full dataset of this month’s Populus poll and shows how support split based on what respondents said they…

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Remember when Gord looked like this?

Remember when Gord looked like this?

Will the honeymoon bets come to the aid of the NH losers? Quite a few regulars took a battering in the betting on the New Hampshire primary and I note that Peter the Punter reported losses of £1300 – ouch!. This has prompted me to look over outstanding bets and I discovered one that was very popular amongst PBers in late June and early July at the start of the Prime Minister’s extraordinary media honeymoon. For it was not only…

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Populus poll gives boost for Clegg

Populus poll gives boost for Clegg

“Four Daves” – Con 37 (-3), Lab 33 (+1), Lib Dem 19 (+3) Clegg gives Lib Dems a three-point boost Cameron leads 44-40 on best PM Brown only six points ahead on “strong leader” UK politics has been overshadowed by the dramatic events across the Atlantic, but tonight’s Populus poll in the Times shows the state of the parties as Parliament returns from the Christmas break. Nick Clegg, who’ll face his first PMQs on Wednesday, gets a three-point boost for…

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2008 – the opening General Election prices

2008 – the opening General Election prices

Have the betting markets got it about right? On the first working day of the year I thought it might be useful, as a point of reference to record the latest UK general election betting prices. These seem to suggest that punters believe that the Conservatives will be the top party but will be someway short of an overall majority. We last recorded the prices like this as a matter of record on June 27th 2007 – the day that…

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Boost for Labour in new YouGov poll

Boost for Labour in new YouGov poll

Tory lead down to 5% but nearly 60% say Gord is doing badly A new YouGov poll reported in the Sunday Times this morning has, with changes on the last survey by the pollster nearly a fortnight ago CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (+4): LD 15% (-1). There’s very little other information in the paper except that “six out of 10 people believe the prime minister is doing badly”. We don’t know when the poll was carried out or any…

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Was there insider trading on Brown’s election U-turn?

Was there insider trading on Brown’s election U-turn?

Who were those who cashed in on the afternoon of October 6th? While going through some of the old threads during the key moments of 2007 I came across the following discussion, reproduced below, which got by-passed by the dramatic news of Gordon’s general election U-turn on the afternoon of October 6. For it suggests that a gambler or a group of gamblers who had inside information about the Prime Minister’s decision sought to turn what they knew into cash…

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A double blow for Brown from the Indy

A double blow for Brown from the Indy

Defeat threatened on terror limits and John Rentoul says “it’s all over” On what must be the first “conventional” front page in a long time the Independent, the normally left-leaning paper, reports a ComRes survey of Labour MPs which suggests that the government is heading for a commons defeat if it presses ahead with plans to extend the limit on detention without trial to 42 days The survey found at least 38 Labour MPs would rebel against – four more…

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