Has Jackie Ashley got this right?
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Is the problem Labour generally or just Brown?
Would the government have a better chance if Gordon stood aside? The above, the main lead in the Guardian, is typical of what is in many of the papers this morning as they get their first chance to analyse the Crewe & Nantwich result and pose questions for the future. Labour is in serious trouble facing, in my view, a Tory landslide that could match that of Blair’s in 1997. But is there a solution? Would Gordon taking early retirement…
My General Election call: A Conservative majority
Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this – when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election? The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for…
Paddy Power pays out on C&N
Are the bookies really taking a hammering? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has followed up its early payout on Boris in the London Mayoral election by repeating the exercise with the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich. In the former the money came after the polls had closed but before the count. With tomorrow’s by-election the polling stations have not even opened yet. This is good publicity stunt and shows the view of the betting community that a Tory victory tomorrow is…
Now ICM records a Labour deficit
Is there anything that Brown can do to turn things round? The May ICM national voting intention survey for the Guardian is just out and records what is the firm’s biggest Labour deficit of modern times – and is in line with the trend of other recent polls. The figures, with changes on the last ICM poll at the end of April are: CON 41% (+2): LAB (-2): LD 22% (+2). The changes reflected in the chart above are from…
Oct 6th 2007: the moment it all went wrong
Given the dramatic changes we are seeing I thought it might be a good moment to look back to the first Saturday in October when Gordon recorded his famous interview with Andrew Marr. It was this, it will be recalled, that was Downing Street’s way of ending the speculation about an early November 2007 general election and followed a week when the Tories had begun to start their recovery in the polls. Gordon looks a bit better in the recording…
Three polls that shake Labour to the core
Graphics – News of the World Can it get any worse for Gordon? Reproduced above are the graphics that appear in this morning’s News of the World showing the key numbers from its ICM survey of Crewe and Nantwich voter ahead of next Thursday’s crucial by election. Given that a week ago the same pollster was reporting a margin of 4% for the Tories it is very hard to see how any other result than an emphatic victory by Cameron’s…
Tory lead with YouGov now 20%
More gloom for Gordon On an evening when several polls are expected the first one with hard information is just coming in. For the Sunday Times tomorrow YouGov reports the following shares with comparisons from the Sun YouGov survey taken last week. CON 45%(-4): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (+1) Even though this represents a substantial swingback to the government David Cameron, I’m sure, will be happy with a 20% margin. Other numbers from YouGov have Brown’s personal ratings at…