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Category: General Election

Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

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Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities. The current government is a minority government, kept in power through the offices of the DUP. Right now, however, the DUP are not happy….

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After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

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Get ready for the most dramatic year in UK politics for decades 2018 was boring, wasn’t it? No leadership change among the three main parties for the first time in four years, only the third year this decade without a general election or a major referendum, and not even the distraction of a big foreign election (the best on offer was the Italian election, which also produced the only change among the G7 leaders). Except of course it wasn’t. True,…

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My Christmas eve bet that TMay will still be PM at the end of next year

My Christmas eve bet that TMay will still be PM at the end of next year

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Moggsy’s failed confidence move gives her 12 months immunity On the day of this month’s confidence vote amongst Tory MPs on Theresa May the PM declared that it was her intention not to lead the party into the next general election. If we stick with the Fixed Term Parliament Act timetable that means any time before the spring of 2022. That might have helped her in fending off Moggsy’s ill-judged move which also provided her with the additional bonus that…

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Corbyn’s “Brexit goes ahead if LAB won snap election” arouses furious response from many witihn his party

Corbyn’s “Brexit goes ahead if LAB won snap election” arouses furious response from many witihn his party

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Corbyn faces furious Labour backlash over backing Brexit https://t.co/BXrnYJbJnk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 23, 2018 Fuck you, Jeremy. A great big, left wing, liberal, child-of-an-immigrant, product of globalisation, Europe-loving *FUCK* *YOU*. Just angry I fell for yr holier-than-thou-ness & yr appearance of wanting the right thing for yr own country. Just a big old lie. You need to go, now. https://t.co/fLxfum8joJ — G #blacklivesmatter #noPlanetB #keepitintheground (@eurasiafantasia) December 21, 2018 I was a Labour Party member for 20 years….

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It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17

It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17

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Fiona Onasanya: Peterborough MP guilty in speeding case – Could be by-election in seat gained by LAB from CON at GE17https://t.co/TetDWtgYmR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2018 The last two general elections in Peterborough where the LAB MP has been found guilty of perverting the course of justice pic.twitter.com/6ebLldWPdx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2018 What appears to be a very interesting by-election is in prospect following the conviction this afternoon of the Peterborough MP. She has been…

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The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind the LDs ” poll

The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind the LDs ” poll

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YouGov/People’s Vote At the weekend when this came out I was a bit nervous about circulating details without having seen the full form of the question that was asked and the breakdown of the data. Well this is now available and above we see a snapshot of the main question and responses. I think the wording of the two options is fine but I am quite surprised by the change it brought to voting intentions. What must be worrying to…

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Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

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New YouGov poll finds that LAB would drop to behind the LDs if the party helps the Tories to pass Brexit https://t.co/WcnsPVRxJi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2018 The S Times is reporting a YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, showing that support for LAB could fall from 36% to 22% if it helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May. In these circumstances, the…

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Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

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The Blair-Major MORI satisfaction ratings before GE1997 The Cameron-Brown Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings before GE2010 Current Corbyn-May Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts. The Ipsos-MORI ratings have been used because these have been recorded at regular intervals since 1977. The proposition works for the only other LOTO to become PM since this polling started – Mrs. Thatcher. In the 1979 polls before the election she led the PM, James Callaghan,…

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