Will ministers be thanked or get the blame? Reproduced above are some of the front pages this morning – different papers all telling the same story. Could October 6th 2008 go down as reference point we will look back to in the years to come – or is there much worse on the way? Who knows? We are in uncharted territory and for those who like forecasting elections and betting on political outcomes some of the certainties appear to be…
Is Jackie Ashley right – is it now “Emergency Labour”? I thought that we could not let this day pass by without recalling that it was exactly a year ago, on October 6th 2007, that Gordon Brown recorded his fateful interview with Andrew Marr calling off a late autumn general election. Everything about the current political situation derives from that point which saw a U-turn in both Brown and David Cameron’s fortunes. For the extraordinary media honeymoon that Brown had…
Will British voters learn from the lessons of a new American Presidency? In a fantastic post over at the Spectator Magazine’s Coffee House blog, James Forsyth asks whether an expected Obama presidency will either prove or disprove Gordon Brown’s claim that “this is no time for a novice” He writes “If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose…
It’s 10/1 that he won’t make it to the general election? On July 29th 2004, just as Peter Mandelson was about to take up his role as EU Commissioner, we suggested here that the 3/1 that was then available on him leaving the role early was worth looking at noting that “looking at the form book this might be a good bet!” So another PB tip comes good and I must check with William Hill to find out how much…
What’s the political impact of power seeping away from Labour One of the greatest weapons in the armoury of any government is that it has power. It can use it to influence the media agenda and, of course, to further its political position. But is that starting to change with the growing realisation that is is not as strong as it was? In a Times comment this morning Sam Coates makes this acute observation: “The Mayor of London’s decision to…
Are punters anticipating a polling boost? David Cameron’s conference speech seems to have gone down well on the spread betting markets where there has been a shift to the Tories this morning. Sporting Index has moved up two seats and is now only four seats below the market high in mid-September when an Ipsos-MORI poll came in with a 28% Tory lead. In this form of betting punters “trade” the number of seats as though they were stocks and shares…
Can we really envisage him being at Number 10? One thing that we are learning from the McCain-Obama battle in the US is that instant reactions by the media and professional commentators are not always the best guide to the public’s mood. Thus a week ago the first debate was scored by most of the experts as being a McCain win or a tie – yet the polling this week has been all towards the Democratic contender. So I’m holding…
Click on panel to watch Why doesn’t he try to make what he says interesting? On the thread last night James A posted a link to one of Brown’s hurriedly arranged interviews yesterday and raised the issue of the PM’s lack of variation in the words that he uses. Just click on the panel and watch it for 90 seconds and you’ll hear him saying the same thing using the same few words time and time again. There’s no recognition…