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Category: General Election

If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then

If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then

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The overnight YouGov poll giving the Conservatives an 11% lead was the worst for LAB since the 2017 general election. I like to look at polls in context which is why above there there is the full Wikipedia list of all GB voting intention polls this year. The big picture is that LAB is on the decline and the Tories are moving up a bit. Although you’ve got a range of Conservative leads between 4% and 11% surveys it’s the…

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New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

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LAB 32-5 CON 40+3 TIG 6 LD 5-3 UKIP 7= The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement. Clearly the week has seen another political story dominate the headlines that is not Brexit and much of the focus of the new Independent Group has been critical of LAB and particularly its leader. Corbyn looks less…

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William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

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The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election. The names listed are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith, Anna Soubry, Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston. I’d reckon that Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston would be in with a fighting chance with, I’d guess. high name recognition in their constituencies. I think Heidi Allen in Cambridgeshire…

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Why the TIGers make the DUP less powerful and a 2019 general election less likely

Why the TIGers make the DUP less powerful and a 2019 general election less likely

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Betting that it won’t happen this yet might now be value We all remember the dramatic Commons no confidence motion last month that TMay won but only with the help of the DUP. Without their 10 votes her government would have gone down and we would now be coming to the end of a general election campaign. At the time Mr. Corbyn warned that they make other attempts. Well since the departure…

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On the Betfair exchange LAB’s chances of winning most seats next time drop to a 41% chance

On the Betfair exchange LAB’s chances of winning most seats next time drop to a 41% chance

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange On what is quite a momentous day in British politics it is quite hard to single out a specific market that has seen change. The one I’ve chosen is the next general election where punters who only last month rated LAB as a 50-50 chance to win most seats now put it at 41%. A lot depends on reaction to the move and whether the development gets traction in the media. For…

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TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

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The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woesCon: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)Lab: 250 (-12)SNP: 39 (+4)LD: 16 (+4)Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz — YouGov (@YouGov) February 11, 2019 REVISED. New Kantar poll sees movement broadly in line with last week's @OpiniumResearch 7% CON lead surveyCON 40%+5LAB 35%-3LD 10%+1UKIP 3%-3Carried out 7-11 Feb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12,…

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A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Corbyn’s strategy shift seems to being having an impact One of the most volatile current political betting markets is on the year of the next general election. This is ultra-sensitive , clearly , in a situation like at the moment where the governing party does not have a majority and is totally divided on the big issue of the day. This was accentuated by the main Labour strategy being to use TMay’s…

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I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a second general election as party leader and PM

I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a second general election as party leader and PM

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Betfair exchange betting price from Betdata.io The betting barely moves in spite of the speculation Sundays are usually my day off and am only now catching up with the speculation over the weekend of an early election. The idea is to find a means of getting away from the Brexit deadlock and a different composition of the House of Commons would help. Clearly the problem is that it’s hard to see anything relating to Brexit commanding a majority of MPs….

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