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Category: General Election

Has Gord “bet the farm” on a G20 success?

Has Gord “bet the farm” on a G20 success?

guardian.co.uk What if the gathering doesn’t meet expectations? There’s an interesting observation by Steve Richard in the Indy this morning comparing next week’s G20 to “the excitement about the early election in the autumn of 2007” which, of course, Brown was widely seen to have bottled out of and was what prompted his first opinion poll collapse. Richards recalls that only a fortnight ago Brown was talking about “a grand bargain, a global deal” at next week’s gathering – “Now…

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What’s all this going to do to Gord’s G20 hopes?

What’s all this going to do to Gord’s G20 hopes?

Has he been defeated by the markets and the Bank? After Tuesday’s forthright comments on Number 10’s economic strategy by the governor of the Bank of England and the failure of yesterday’s UK auction it was always going to be difficult for Brown to continue with his plan for a further economic stimulus. So the comments in New York highlighted by the Guardian perhaps come as no surprise. But how damaging is the apparent change of direction to him personally…

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Why doesn’t Cameron take on Harriet?

Why doesn’t Cameron take on Harriet?

Would his appearances highlight the Brown absences? Yet again Gordon Brown had other “pressing business” and managed to avoid his weekly commons scrutiny at PMQs – his place being taken as usual by Harriet Harman. I haven’t added this up by my guess is that the PM so arranges his diary that he is facing far fewer PMQ sessions than any other prime minister in modern times. It’s getting to look like a deliberate strategy to avoid something where he…

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Just how serious have things got to?

Just how serious have things got to?

Bloomberg Could the crisis spark off an early general election? I don’t claim to be an expert in the financial markets but just how seriously should we take the news the the latest British bond fails to find enough buyers? It sounds awful – but is it? The idea that the markets will no longer fund the government is something that sounds coherent and most people will grasp it. The question whether or not it is serious? On Spectator Coffee…

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Has Hannan put down his marker for next Tory leader?

Has Hannan put down his marker for next Tory leader?

How good is a 100/1 long-shot bet? At 10 pm last night, after an evening in which the right-wing blogsphere had been buzzing over a speech directly to Gordon Brown in the European Parliament yesterday by the Tory MEP, Daniel Hannan, our friend Shadsy, the political market maker for Ladbrokes, popped up with a great bet. He had a simple posting here: “If anyone does want to take a flyer on Hannan as next Tory leader, you can have 200/1…

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What about the 6/4 on the Tories at Eastleigh?

What about the 6/4 on the Tories at Eastleigh?

PoliticsHome Marginals Survey September 2008 The PH polls says it’s a Tory gain – so why the long odds? Ever since general election constituency betting started in earnest I’ve been cross-referencing the available markets with last September’s Politics Home Marginals poll which surveyed more than 38,000 voters in 238 different seats. My hunt has been for value bets – good odds on a party named in the survey as the likely winner where perhaps the PH prediction is not the…

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Will we see a Brown Bounce III before the election?

Will we see a Brown Bounce III before the election?

SkyNews Poll Tracker In which month do you think that at least two of the pollsters – MORI, ICM, YouGov, Populus and ComRes – will report Labour closer than 9%? April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 or beyond    Give PB your assessment in this online survey We’ve had lots of debate recently about whether there could be…

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Is this the smartest gamble about at the moment?

Is this the smartest gamble about at the moment?

How to improve your odds by combining bets Over the past few days Richard Nabavi has been alerting us to what seems to be a great betting opportunity by combining two bets – the 4/7 that William Hill Politics is offering on the Tories NOT getting 375 seats or more and the same odds that Ladbrokes are offering on the Tories getting an overall majority. This might sound a bit complicated so let’s go through what I’ve done this morning….

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