Has the Times got this one right? Here’s a selection of front pages after a dramatic news day in London. There are so many angles that it’s hard to pick up a coherent thread yet I wonder whether in historical significance the Times highlights the most important story – the Obama and Medvedev statement on nuclear stockpiles. In the UK, of course, everything is looked at in the context of something that has only happened once in the past thirty…
The Money still suggests a CON majority of 56 seats There have been periods when we’ve covered the latest commons seats spread prices on a daily basis as market sentiment has moved between the main parties. Since late January, however, things have remained almost static with hardly any movement at all. The above are the prices from SportingIndex and suggest a mid-point for the Tories of 353 seats. That’s 28 more than the 325 required for an overall majority –…
Will they never know what it’s like to be the opposition? Unless there’s a dramatic change in the fortunes of the main parties in the next twelve months it’s likely that the number of seats changing hands could be approaching, or may even be higher, than that which we saw in Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997. Then John Major’s Conservatives had a net loss of 171 seats with Labour seeing a net increase of 147 and the Lib Dems 26….
Has he become distracted by the G20 meeting? Well here we are – another day of appalling front pages for MPs in the tabloid press as the Jacqui Smith porn issue rumbles on and outline details of expenses for every single MPs are published. What then will be the overall impact on the outcome of the general election? Will it all be forgotten about in a few days or is this another boost for the opposition – particularly the Tories?…
CON 40(-1) LD 18(+1) LAB 28(-2) But could there be no votes for Labour in the G20 meeting? What should be the final poll for March, ComRes for the Indy, is now out and shows a small increase in the Tory lead – although the shares of both the main parties slipped on the last polls from the pollster a week and a half ago. The notable feature is the high figure for “others” 14% which shows the Greens and…
David Herdson’s first post as guest editor In another recession, in another country, in another decade, an aide to a presidential candidate once declared that one of the three key themes to their campaign was “the economy, stupidâ€. In fact, it was the key issue; no-one remembers the other two (which is ironic, as one was “don’t forget healthcareâ€). The candidate was of course Bill Clinton and he duly went on to defeat the incumbent president later that year. However,…
CON 44(+2) LAB 31(+1) LD 18(-2) Sunday Telegraph poll gives Cameron a boost A new poll by ICM for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph is just out and sees Cameron’s party edging up further from the last survey from the firm in the Guardian a week and a half ago. The shares, incidentally, are almost exactly the mirror image of the 1997 general election result when Labour got 44% to the 31% for the Tories led by John Major. The Lib Dems…
Would PM Straw/Johnson/Denham save more marginal seats? Just watching Gordon Brown on SkyNews this morning I was struck by the way he sometimes deals with difficult questions by seeking to deny the main premise. Thus he was pressed on Mervyn King’s comments earlier in the week and, to the great frustration of the interviewer, he seemed to be stating that the governor of the Bank of England did not say what we all heard him saying before the commons committee…