Is John Curtice right about what moves the polls The phrase “It’s the economy stupid” has been quoted time and time again since being first used by the Bill Clinton campaign in 1992 that it’s almost accepted as gospel by many who observe and comment on the political process. Indeed the great hope that Gordon Brown and Labour are clinging onto is that by the time that the general election finally happens then the economy will have got past the…
Guardian Online March 26 2006 Guardian Online May 2 2009 What a difference three years makes? There’s already been a fair bit of discussion on Polly Toynbee’s Saturday column and thanks to Mirthios on the previous thread for digging out the 2006 rendering. What a contrast? Both are worth reading in some detail. Perhaps the most powerful article this weekend is from Nick Cohen in the latest Standpoint under the heading “‘Fear and Filth at Brown’s Number 10”. This left…
UKPollingReport They can’t claim that it wasn’t all predicted It’s suddenly become fashionable in the Labour party to be a Brown-sceptic. Hardly a day goes by before some new faction within the movement starts raising questions about his style of leadership and electability. Yet they were all warned two years ago.. For in the year before Brown’s coronation a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the standard…
Sporting Index Spread Markets At what stage will Labour bottom out? The above are the latest Commons seats spread prices from SportingIndex which have seen further movement away from Labour and an advance for the Lib Dems. Brown’s party is now at its lowest ever level following the latest two seat shift. On the other main market, Extrabet, the numbers are broadly the same – the only difference being the Lib Dem spread which is at 46 – 49 seats….
Click here to watch Was it a mistake to allow Dave to muscle in? Some interesting debate on the previous thread over whether Nick Clegg was right to allow Cameron to be part of his big moment in the immediate aftermath of yesterday afternoon’s vote. Ben Brogan in his Telegraph blog was no doubt about its significance and ran a piece under the heading “A picture that changes politics?”. He went on about Clegg: “.. His willingness to share the…
The Independent Is it really all over over for Gord? With the Prime Minister due to face another difficult vote in the commons let’s spare a thought this morning for the person who will be preparing the daily press summary at Number 10 for Gordon Brown. For even though BBC News regarded the defeat on the Ghurkas issue as a minor down-bulletin story yesterday (a disgrace showing an inept sense of news priorities which opens them up to a charge…
Harry Hayfield asks: Could it be 1997 in reverse? One of the striking things about Election 1997 was the pincher movement that Labour and the Liberal Democrats performed on the Conservatives as tactical voting happened on a scale never seen before (or as electors knew it “Vote for the candidate most likely to defeat the Conservative!”). Today we saw a pincher movement by the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in Westminster which made 55 Labour MP’s vote against the government…
What are his party’s general election prospects? This will be a day for the Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, to savour. For in all the time that he’s been leader this is the first occasion when he came out of PMQs as the clear winner. The anger and ferocity of his attack on Brown for Labour’s inflexible stance on the Ghurka issue hit home on all sides of the house and acted as a good trailer for this afternoon’s debate,…