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Category: General Election

Would a McBride return be curtains for Brown?

Would a McBride return be curtains for Brown?

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Sky News April 12 2009 Surely there’s no truth in the reports that he’s back? James Forsyth at the Spectator Coffee House blog is running a report that there are unconfirmed reports that the disgraced Number 10 spin doctor and former right hand man to the PM, Sean Damien McBride, is “actively working for Labour again”. I simply don’t believe it. For given everything associated with McBride’s exit in April and all the promises last Monday that Brown had turned…

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Is there any way that Mandy could become PM?

Is there any way that Mandy could become PM?

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Could my 200/1 bet come good? He’s everywhere and seems to be involved in everything and there’s little doubt that the big winner of the Brown leadership wobble was Peter Mandelson. (To save pressure on the server I won’t itemise his full titles!) It was his calm intervention, of course, in the hours after James Purnell resigned that calmed Labour down and controlled the nature of the crisis. Quite what he said (and promised?) to the key players late on…

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Take the 6/4 that he’ll be out before the election

Take the 6/4 that he’ll be out before the election

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Was last week about him buying a “dignified exit”? Of all the Labour-leaning bloggers the one I have the most respect for is Paul Linford who consistently has insights about the party which set him apart. His weekend reflections on the future for Gordon and Labour are a case in point and are a must read for those trying to work out what the next eleven months will bring. “…What Mr Brown has done over the past week is not…

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Tories back in the 40s with YouGov

Tories back in the 40s with YouGov

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CON 40 (+3) LAB 24(+2) LD 18 (-1) Half those polled say Brown is “damaging Britain” In its first full Westminster voting intention survey since the Euro elections the Sunday Times YouGov poll shows that the other parties are continuing to figure highly getting `18% of the choices of those in the sample. YouGov show that both the Tories and Labour are seeing increases in their vote shares – though Brown’s party is still in the low 20s. UKIP is…

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The overnight polling thread – or not!

The overnight polling thread – or not!

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It’s getting beyond the time when we normally gets news of any polls for the Sunday papers. I was expecting at least an ICM if only because JohnLoony, for the first time in his life, was interviewed by the firm earlier in the week. It might still come. The last ICM Westminster poll had Labour in third place behind the Lib Dems. Will that still be the situation whenever a poll comes out from the firm? My guess is probably…

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Is this pointing to another Brown come-back?

Is this pointing to another Brown come-back?

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Populus CON 36 (-5) LAB 24(+3) LD 19 (+4) Blow for Cameron in new Populus poll The latest Populus poll in the Times looks like a serious blow for the Tories following nine terrible days for Labour. The voting intention figures above are bad enough but one of the other findings could be very worrying. As the paper puts it “..faced by a straight choice, 44 per cent would still prefer a Labour government and 42 per cent a Conservative…

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Could this be the man who’ll decide the next Speaker?

Could this be the man who’ll decide the next Speaker?

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Is he a Bercow fan or does he have his own plans? The left-leaning Tory MP for Buckingham, John Bercow, continues to be the firm betting favourite to replace Michael Martin in the election a week on Monday and there’s a further write-up of his chances in the Daily Mail. As the report notes: “Labour ministers are plotting to install a Left-wing Tory MP hated by his own leaders as Commons Speaker. Several senior members of the Cabinet have told…

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A tale of two markets by Peter the Punter

A tale of two markets by Peter the Punter

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SportingIndex CON 358-363 LAB 202-207 LD 52-55 Betfair GE Party Line CON 350-355 LAB 205-207.5 LD 50-54.5 Why are the prices so different? Has anybody else noticed the discrepancy between the GE Spreads and Betfair’s ‘Party Seats Line’? The mid point sell of Labour on SPIN is 204.5; on the PSL it is 207.25. Not a lot of difference, you might think. But hold on. The PSL sell price should always be *lower* than the spreads, not higher, as it…

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