Take the 6/4 that he’ll be out before the election

Take the 6/4 that he’ll be out before the election


Was last week about him buying a “dignified exit”?

Of all the Labour-leaning bloggers the one I have the most respect for is Paul Linford who consistently has insights about the party which set him apart.

His weekend reflections on the future for Gordon and Labour are a case in point and are a must read for those trying to work out what the next eleven months will bring.

“…What Mr Brown has done over the past week is not so much “seen off” the threat to his leadership, as earned the right to a dignified resignation at some point between the party conferences and Christmas

….In a revealing BBC radio interview on Tuesday, Foreign Secretary and South Shields MP David Miliband said Mr Brown would remain in power because “the main contender Alan Johnson” was supporting the Prime Minister.

This tell us three things. First, that Mr Brown is now dependent on Mr Johnson’s support. Second, that Mr Johnson can take over any time he wants. Third, that when that time comes, Mr Miliband will support him.

The Labour Party has finally reached a settled will on the future of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, but it is not that he will lead them into the next general election for good or ill.It is that he will be replaced, at a decent interval and in a suitably dignified way, by the man he has just appointed Home Secretary..”

Linford’s “feel” for the situation seems plausible and perhaps those who were expecting Brown to be deposed last week didn’t fully understand the movement. There’s a realisation there their only chance is with someone else but there’s no desire for Brown to be humiliated. The party is much more sentimental than either the Conservatives or the Lib Dems.

If you think that this is on then William Hill are offering 6/4 that Brown will NOT lead Labour at the general election. Sounds a good punt to me.

****Labour Leadership Betting****

Mike Smithson

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