Could the polls be as wrong now as they were then? If there is one precedent that could provide some hope for Brown Central it is John Major’s surprise victory in the general election of April 9th 1992. In the year or so beforehand the Tory government’s by-election performance was even worse than Labour’s at the moment and with the exception of one or two polls all the pollsters were pointing to a dead heat in vote numbers as the…
Has Labour’s time run out? Nick Sparrow, boss of ICM, has sent me an email in response to recent comments suggesting that August polling is somehow unreliable. He makes a strong case that this isn’t correct by looking at his polls in the August ahead of the past three general elections and what actually happened. Nick notes that comparing Guardian ICM polls for the August before a general election with the result you get:- August 1996 poll suggested that Labour…
What’s the politics if the UK lost its AAA credit rating? While the Lockerbie release story has been dominating the news a more bread and butter issue has received scant coverage yet has the potential to have an even bigger impact on the election campaign. The government’s borrowing figures for July were much worse than expected – and needless to say, expectations weren’t healthy to start with. The scale of the battering that the public finances have taken in the…
Guardian online Is there anything that Brown Central can do? The August ICM poll for the Guardian is out and like all other polls reporting this month it is simply more of the same. Labour in the doldrums in the 20s with the Tories in the 40s. The changes in the Guardian’s graphic, above, are with the last poll in the paper in July. Compared with the Sunday Mirror ICM poll the weekend before last the changes were CON -2…
PoliticsHome What do we think of the first post-release poll? The above are the results of an online poll of 1,204 adults carried out between 18-20 August 2009. Figures are weighted by party ID to reflect the UK at large. Unfortunately we do not have any Scotland-specific numbers which are probably the most relevant. Mike Smithson
Times Online But isn’t the most pressure going to be on Brown’s government? With the storm over the release of the Lockerbie bomber continuing unabated on both sides of the Atlantic William Hill has opened a market that “Alex Salmond will cease to be SNP Leader on or before December 31, 2009”. Today the Holyrood parliament is being recalled so justice minister Kenny MacAskill can make a statement. With talk of a boycott of Scottish goods in the US there’s…
A few bets for consideration at home and abroad Following up on the recent autumn preview, here are a few betting opportunities that you might like to consider before the political scene starts to hot up again – naturally the usual caveats apply. Feedback on individual selections welcomed. Norway Norway votes on 14th September and didn’t get covered in the autumn preview, but Labour’s Jens Stoltenberg to be re-elected Prime Minister is 2/5 (in from 1/2) with Ladbrokes and looks…
Mail Online We’re back to more Labour leadership speculation “Oh no” I can hear you groan – not more on Gordon Brown and the Labour leadership. Alas it’s been some time since we did a thread on the subject but with the holidays coming to an end that’s all changing. The Mail on Sunday is carrying the above story about the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, making a scathing attack in a private meeting on his boss over how to attack the…