CON 40%(+2) LAB 28%(+5) LD 19%(-4) And the Tories move back to the 40s These changes, once again, seem to fit with the general theory of conference period polling that the party that has been last “on” gets a boost and the longer it is since your conference then your share will decline. The poll is for the Independent on Sunday tomorrow and the fieldwork took place between the 30th September and 1st October 2009 – so Thursday and Friday….
SportingIndex Punters seem to be following the tracker Before Gordon Brown’s conference speech began to affect YouGov’s daily tracker ratings the SportingIndex spead market on the number of seats the parties will win at the next election had moved to what I think was a record low of 198 – 203 seats. Immediately after the the first poll to take the speech into account had Labour just seven points behind the market moved back up again a couple of notches….
YouGov Will those Sun shares change as we get to polling day? In the aftermath of the Sun’s switch from Labour there was quite a bit of focus on how influential newspapers were on their readers – but little of it was backed by hard evidence. In the data from the latest YouGov tracker the pollster featured the above set of cross-tabs which I do not recall seeing before – linking newspaper type to voting intention. As can be seen…
CON 40% (+3) LAB 26% (-4) LD 20%(-1) Labour’s YouGov tracker deficit doubles After the euphoria amongst Labour supporters last night and some corresponding gloom from Tories today’s YouGov daily tracker moves the party shares back to the sort of territory that we’ve come to expect in recent months – Labour in the mid-20s and the Tories in the low 40s. Most of the online questionnaires would have been filled in last night after a day that was dominated by…
Daily Express How would a referendum U-turn go down in Manchester? Tomorrow the Irish vote in their second referendum on the EU Lisbon treaty with the results being known the following day – just as delegates to the Conservative conference begin arriving in Manchester. The story featured above from the Daily Express gives a sense of the minefield Cameron might have to negotiate should, as expected the Irish vote YES. With the Czech government said to be on the point…
Is this a taste of the next eight months? Today’s Sun gives a firmer indication of what the paper’s change of allegiance will mean in terms how the paper intends to carry on its political coverage in the run-up to the general election. Just look at the way it covers Harriet Harman’s attack on the paper. If this is a taster then we are in for an interesting time. Quite what the electoral impact will be is hard to measure…
PaddyPower Do the terms of the market make it a good bet? Thanks to StJohn on the previous thread for spotting this new market fromPaddyPower on who, of a named list, will be the first to call on Gordon Brown to step down. The chances are, as far as I can see, that none of them would go public and the likelihood is that Brown will leave of his own accord – probably after a general election defeat. But under…
What will today’s news do to YouGov’s daily tracker? In trying to assess the political influence of the Sun’s switch Labour MP, Nick Palmer, made this astute comment on the previous thread:- “..It occurs to me that the daily YouGovs are going to give us an excellent opportunity to test the power of the Sun endorsement to shift things. The YouGov taken today and reported tomorrow will show the impact of the speech plus a little bit of Sun. The…