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Category: General Election

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election

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The Bedata.io chart above shows what’s been happening on the Betfair next general election overall majority betting market. As can be seen a CON majority, now a 34% chance, has risen to its highest level in a year while a LAB majority has dropped to 22%. My guess is that the recent moves are in response to the positive polling news for the Tories. The thing I find remarkable is that even with one poll having the Tories 13% ahead…

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Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

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The chart from BetData.io shows the 6-month trend on Betfair’s next prime minister market. Sunak and Starmer remain the top two but they are no longer as strong as they were. For Rishi there needs to be a Tory leadership contest and that almost certainly requires Boris to stand aside – something over which I am becoming less convinced about. Johnson, surely wants to fight another general election. But he won’t stay in that position forever and a great strength…

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Ten seats to watch at the next general election

Ten seats to watch at the next general election

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It’s never too soon to think about the next election and how that might look in detail. Let’s have a look at some of the individual constituencies that will tell the story of the night.  Yes, there is going to be a boundary review. So how on earth can we identify barometer seats now? The problem is less daunting than it looks. The latest review is going to keep seat numbers at 650, meaning that seat reallocations will be fairly measured. We know how…

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Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

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The Big Bang Theory has run more than a few seasons past its peak, but one of its more striking moments was Sheldon’s and Amy’s game Counterfactuals. One player had to build a question on a premise and then other players had to come up with, then defend, their answer. For example: “In a world where rhinoceroses are domesticated pets, who wins the Second World War?”   Such exercises would limber us up for a problem that might well be coming down the…

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Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

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He could become PM with LAB getting fewer votes and seats A big advantage for Starmer over Johnson at the next general election is that he is in with a good chance of becoming PM if the Tories lose their majority. This would be the case even if LAB has fewer seats. The converse is that Johnson’s Tories almost certainly have to win an overall majority of Commons seats to retain power. This is all because if Boris fails to…

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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

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When YouGov published their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) election model during the 2017 General Election campaign, it’s fair to say that it was met with a great deal of scepticism (though not from Alastair Meeks). Sure, expectations about the size of the Conservative majority had been scaled back, but a hung-parliament? Labour gain Canterbury? No chance… In the end the Tories did a little bit better than the model predicted and Theresa May clung on to power. But the…

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The loneliness of the long-distance leader

The loneliness of the long-distance leader

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Where is Team Starmer? Sir Keir Starmer has a lot going for him.  He is credible as a PM-in-waiting, which is more than can be said for his two predecessors.  He seems competent, thoughtful, consistent, honourable, and honest, which are not conspicuous strengths of our current PM.  Admittedly he is rather dull, and a poor public speaker, but overall voters think quite favourably of him; his net ratings were modestly positive in six out of the seven December polls. One…

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The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

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What were you doing in 2005?  At the time of the 2005 general election I was at a 40th birthday party in Northern Ireland (“I like this place: they take their politics seriously”, a Kenyan friend said, approvingly looking at all the posters).  Tony Blair had just won a third term for Labour with a majority of 66.   In the intervening period, we have had four further general elections and the political landscape has been transformed.  Last year Boris Johnson…

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