What will the recession end do to the campaign? Unless everybody has got this wildly wrong official figures out this morning will show that Britain’s economy grew in the final quarter of 2009, thus marking the end of the recession that has been going on for eighteen months. It’s a massive day for Labour and its leader Mr. Brown who believe that this will underline their argument that their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right and…
CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…
Hasn’t this become like October 2007? In all the speculation over May 6th really being the day let’s not forgot the total Horlicks that Labour/Brown made over the election that never was in October/November 2007. Then, according to the party’s general secretary at the time, Peter Watts, getting on for £1.2m of Labour precious resources had already been spent. A million and a half mail packs had been printed and stuffed and were ready to be sent to key voters…
Could they fall down in a row over studio audience? Interesting piece by David Wooding in the News of the World about rows between the parties over the formats for the planned leaders’ debates. The big issue is about the audiences – how they should be made up and whether they should be involved in the questioning. Apparently both Cameron and Brown don’t want direct questions from the floor for fear of being ambushed. But it’s who is in the…
Why’s the poster campaign focussed on vulnerable ministers? Before the weekend I suggested that the location of the outdoor poster sites that had been booked for the Tory NHS campaign might provide an indication of party strategy on how marginals were regarded. After all there is no point in spending good money in existing Tory or Labour strongholds – seats which are not going to change hands and will not affect the actual outcome. This prompted somebody to give me…
Poll of 97 LAB-held marginals CON 40% (+9.2) LAB 37% (-7.4) LD 14%(-3.8) Standard GB poll: CON 38% (-4) LAB 29% (nc) LD 19%(nc) Or is national voting intention that gives the best picture? Two very different polls tonight both suggesting quite different outcomes to the general election – one will cheer up Labour supporters and the other will provide a boost for the Tories. The comparisons in the former are with what happened in the 97 seats at the…
Is the ‘policy a day’ crowding Labour out of the spotlight? If the purpose of a media campaign is to get noticed and get talked about, then the Cameron/NHS posters have been a remarkable success: from spoof versions going viral on the web to questions on Mock the Week to references by Gordon Brown in PMQ’s, the posters have gained attention way beyond most political campaigns. One effect of not just the Tory NHS poster campaign but also the proposals…
Could getting this right secure the key to Downing Street? Occasionally we get real gems on the PB threads and there was a great one this afternoon from Blair Freebairn – the geographer who produced that classic guest slot a couple of years ago on the prevalence of English towns amongst the marginals. This was Blair’s latest thinking sparked off by the LAB-CON spat on marriage:- “Labour are totally buggered if they go on anti-marriage. 1 – Of the 100…