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Category: General Election

Ipsos-MORI has the LDs at a post-GE2010 high with a big increase in awareness of Joe Swinson if not her net satisfaction figures

Ipsos-MORI has the LDs at a post-GE2010 high with a big increase in awareness of Joe Swinson if not her net satisfaction figures

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NEW @IpsosMORI /@standardnews POLL Good news and bad news for Boris Johnson. THREAD Good news for Johnson. Cons lead by 10pts Headline voting intention (likely voters) Conservatives 34%Labour 24%Lib Dem 20%Brexit Party 9%Green 6%SNP 4Others 4% Cons were +2 in June* — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) August 1, 2019 New @IpsosMORI / @standardnews Satisfaction with Jo Swinson's performance as Lib Dem leader Satisfied 35% (+7)Dissatisfied 40% (+12)Don't know 25% (-19)Net -5 (-5) 79% of Lib Dem supporters satisfied. Changes from July….

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Latest YouGov favourability polling shows the enormous mountain that Corbyn has to scale

Latest YouGov favourability polling shows the enormous mountain that Corbyn has to scale

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It was 3 years ago that YouGov began issuing leader favourability ratings a move that followed suggestions from me. I’ve long been in the leader ratings matter much more than voting intention numbers camp and the format I most like is when poll samples are asked whether they favour a particular political leader or not. The numbers for Johnson speak for themselves and the biggest electoral pointer, surely, is how Corbyn is currently perceived. That 70% view the LAB leader…

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In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

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What happened when MPs took back control Until the afternoon of Tuesday September 3rd everything had been going well for Cummings and Johnson. The proroguement of Parliament cutting down the numbers of days before the October Brexit deadline when Johnson and his team would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny had been drastically slashed and all seemed on target. Then MPs moved to take control of the Commons agenda allowing the Benn bill to go through – a measure designed to…

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Once again political gamblers have been overstating the chances of an early general election

Once again political gamblers have been overstating the chances of an early general election

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Chart via the betdata.io The favourite month has gone from September to October to November to December and now 2020 For decades or as long as I have been political betting one of the characteristics of political gamblers is that they overstate the chances of an early General Election being called. Somehow it is always easier to make the case in your own head that one is going to happen soon than that it probably won’t. So over the past…

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Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

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When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory. Well I’m now heading back overland from Andalusia after my holiday in the Osborne (no relation) sherry town of El Puerto de Santa María and will be back in the UK…

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Rebels with a cause

Rebels with a cause

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Excl: Expelled Tory rebels plotting to oust Boris Johnson as an MP by running a candidate against him in his Uxbridge marginal seathttps://t.co/inaQ9St31N — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 12, 2019 Will the voters in Uxbridge & South Ruislip practise safe X to avoid waking up with a blonde and deep regrets the morning after the next GE? The Sun report that EXPELLED Tory rebels are plotting to oust Boris Johnson as an MP by running a candidate against him,…

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The next general election vote shares by party betting

The next general election vote shares by party betting

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Ladbrokes have markets on the GB vote shares for the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems at the next general election. I’m sitting out this market for the time being for a variety of reasons mainly to do, but not exclusively, with We’re not sure when it will be, it could be weeks or it could be years away. Nor do we know the circumstances of the election. Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition at the…

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The stark reality of the challenge facing Boris Johnson if he wants to win Labour held seats that backed Leave

The stark reality of the challenge facing Boris Johnson if he wants to win Labour held seats that backed Leave

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This should scare the sh*t out of Number 10 https://t.co/1buBaBDotI — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019 Consider how deep into Labour territory Johnson may have to dig to offset losses in Scotland, London & southern Remainia. Some big shifts likely required among Lab voters who culturally agree w/ Cons on Brexit but economicallyare v v sceptical about whether Cons "on their side" — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019 Looking through the information released so far it shows that…

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