The Sun Get used to regular numbers every night Without much fanfare or advance warning the YouGov Daily Tracker for the Sun was launched overnight and shows a small deterioration in Labour’s position since the last published survey from the firm more than two and a half weeks ago. As can be seen the shares are CON 39%(+1): LAB 30%(-1): LD 18% (-1) – all within the margin of error but nothing to suggest that the much vaunted TV extravaganza…
UKPR I know a lot of people are getting a bit frustrated as they wait for the next poll. Hopefully something will come along quite soon. In the meantime I’ve reproduced all the polls for 2010 so far. Tomorrow Andy Morris, research director at Angus Reid, will be taking online questions. This will start after lunch. Mike Smithson
Will it be up, down, or about the same? A couple of weeks back Nick Palmer, MP, wrote that he was looking forward to reading my thoughts on turnout and the reason I’ve waited for so long is that, frankly, I’m only now forming a view. For the big thing about this election is that for only the second time in 31 years is there a serious chance of the ruling party losing power. That of itself adds an extra…
Was it this rather than “scum” that will seal his fate? This is how, as of 4pm, the Labour MP for Telford, David Wright, was dealing on his website with the row that has erupted about him. In the betting there did not appear to be a betting market on whether Telford MP will manage to hold on to his position as a government whip but we could see one this evening. For an object lesson in how not to…
Wikimedia Can we identify what’s driving the votes? Over the past week or so we’ve been putting a lot of focus on the marginals – the seats where the fates of Mr. Brown and Mr. Cameron will be decided. For there has been a fair bit of polling evidence, still far from conclusive, that there have been sharper moves to the Tories in these places than in the country as a whole. A key part of the Andy Cooke thesis,…
(The above is a revised seat model by long-standing PBers and statistician, Andy Cooke – the first version of which was published here and here after two closely argued papers that questioned the standard orthodoxy about the UNS – the uniform national swing which is the traditional, if not always accurate of projecting the seat totals in the house of commons. Since then there have been no serious defences of the UNS except that this is how it has always…
Has he “launched” his bid too early? There’s a story running on the Daily Mail site suggesting that Miliband (D) has started a nationwide tour as part of an effort to drum up support ahead of the leadership contest that is expected after the general election. An email has gone out to party activists saying that Miliband is holding number of public meetings across the country to answer questions on a wide range of issues, including, and not just restricted…
What’ll be the impact of the Brown/Morgan programme? At this stage before the general election the only thing that matters is whether Brown’s much-hyped TV programme with Piers Morgan is going to cause any more people to vote Labour in the seats where it matters. It’s certainly blanked out the rest of the political news agenda including yesterday’s explosive row between Andy Burnham and Andrew Lansley which Labour might have gained from. On the thread overnight comments were broadly favourable….