A new poll tonight of London seats reports a big move back to the Tories compared with the last such poll just three weeks ago. The shares are: CON 40 (+1): LAB 31 (-4): LD 18 (+1). Compared with the 2005 general election in the capital this represents an 8% swing which puts it at Angus Reid levels. Mike Smithson
Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…
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YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 22 Mar 19 CONSERVATIVES 36% 38% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 5% More jitters for the blue team Tonight’s daily poll for the Sun, where the fieldwork finished at 5pm, reports a narrowing of the lead from 7% on Sunday to just 4% this evening. This is all getting very tight as we move into the final pre-campaign stage. For YouGov follows ICM and Optimum…
The Sun Could this put the Tories back above 40? On the face of it this afternoon’s news about Samantha Cameron should be good news for the Tories. It’s the sort of thing that people like to know about and seems to give pleasure. This, of course, has the added dimension of the personal tragedy that the couple have undergone in the past thirteen months. So maybe we can expect a baby boost in polling that takes place in the…
Populus (Resolution Foundation) Mar 11 Feb 7 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 21% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6.5% Is the swing 1.7% bigger in the key seats? Thanks to Tabman on the previous thread for spotting this one. A standard national voting intention poll that was carried out by Populus the week before last for the Resolution Foundation. The figures above show changes on the most recently published standard national poll from the…
Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly +/- BROWN 33% (36) 61% (60) -4 CAMERON 49% (48) 39% (44) +6 CLEGG 47% (43) 27% (31) +8 YouGov Sunday Times: FW Mar 19 (Mar 5) Are these a better pointer than voting intentions? There is a theory, supported by polling for the 1992 general election, that leader approval ratings are a better indicator of electoral outcomes than the standard voting intention findings. I sort of buy into…
ICM Mar 20 data Voted in 2005 Aged 18 – 24 2010 CON voters 89.9% 3.7% 2010 LAB voters 81.6% 8.9% 2010 Lib Dem voters 88.9% 4.4% Is this a problem with having greater appeal to the young? The table shows two sets of figures from the latest ICM poll: the proportion who voted for one of the main parties in 2005 and the proportion of their overall support now coming from the 18-24 old age-group. This is relevant because…