Will levels be much higher than last time? My view on turnout has, for some time, been that it’s going to see quite an uplift from the 61% of 2005. At the last two elections the outcome was always a foregone conclusion and there was never any sense that change might come about. A fortnight tomorrow things will be different. A change is a real possibility and even at this late stage it’s not possible to predict the outcome. Voters,…
Did the move to the Lib Dems start much earlier? It is almost becoming a short-hand to describe this election. The two party fight became a three-sided contest at 10pm on Thursday April 15th when the first polling reaction to the first leaders’ debate had Nick Clegg winning by a mile. No doubt this is how the dramatic Election of 2010 will go down in political history – but is it actually true? Didn’t the move to the yellow team…
What will the next seventeen days bring? Our chart shows the dramatic movement in best betting prices on a Tory majority over the past extraordinary week – a period when the views of the election outcome from punters and pundits alike changed so dramatically. As someone suggested on an overnight thread – the Lib Dems have gone viral and we’ve no idea where this will end. Certainly the prospects for the Tory majority look a lot thinner this morning. For…
This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con Lab LD Oth Lead YouGov 17 Apr 33 30 29 8 Con 3 BPIX 17 Apr 31 28 32 9 LD 1 ComRes 17 Apr 31 27 29 13 Con 2 ICM…
Should the Tories play the immigration card? With the reverberations of the post-debate opinion polls dominating the political coverage there’s a lot of focus this morning on how Labour and the Tories deal with the new challenge. To me Andrew Rawnsley is on the right lines in the Observer. He writes: “Some Labour strategists have sounded happy to join the praise for his performance in the first bout. One of Gordon Brown’s senior aides cheerfully remarked to me on Friday…
UPDATED ComRes: S Mirror & Indy on Sunday Apr 17 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 31% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 21% LABOUR 27% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph Apr 15 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 34% 37% LIB DEMS 27% 20% LABOUR 29% 31% But can Labour rely on the UNS? The polling excitement continues with a second poll showing that the Lib Dems have over-hauled Labour to move into second place. Also there’s an ICM poll where the fieldwork was carried out before the…
Recalling Frank Luntz’s Newsnight focus group The events of the past 48 hours have reminded me of the above clip (click on the picture to play) of the Frank Luntz’s Newsnight focus group that was carried out in September 2008. Then Nick Clegg was an almost total unknown and yet when exposed to selected voters on the same footing as Brown and Cameron they responded in almost exactly the same way as that which we have seen since Thursday evening….
What about 50/1 to win most seats? This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate – held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation – was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share. In sport, the phrase…