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Category: General Election

On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

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Chart Betdata.io Judging by the reaction from LAB MPs tonight it is hard to see Johnson getting the 434 votes he needs on Monday to back his December 12th general election plan. Of course there are the usual shouts of “chicken” to the main opposition party but we have been down this road twice before. Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table. In a sense…

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Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

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All the talk is of elections. This time we might actually see one. In a narrative that has strong echoes of 2017, the talk is all of the Conservatives holding large leads in the polls, remaking their coalition and sweeping all gloriously before them with a victory that will transform the electoral map. Well, perhaps. It was Marx who first suggested that when history repeats itself, the first time is tragedy and the second is farce. Whether or not you…

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Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

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Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io According to this Guardian Tweet there was discussion at the Shadow cabinet this morning over the timing of the general election with one or two pressing for an early contest. As has been observed many times we are in a unique situation over this. Sure Johnson wants one as soon as possible because his government is in a minority and he’ll struggle to get anything through. Unfortunately for him the timing is no longer…

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The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more gains from LAB to stay at Number 10

The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more gains from LAB to stay at Number 10

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The most significant, though, hardly surprising development during Saturday’s special Brexit debate was that the DUP with its ten MPs has totally switched to opposing the government. It is hard to see how that can be changed certainly by the current PM. This was not a mistake that TMay would have made. The sense of betrayal coming from hardline unionist communities in Northern Ireland heightens the fact that Johnson’s readiness to ignore and ditch the key element of unionism about…

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Just a little bit of history repeating?

Just a little bit of history repeating?

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Who'd make best Prime Minister? Johnson 43% (+2)Corbyn 21% (-)Not sure 32% (-2) Leavers 73-6 for JohnsonWomen 38-20 Johnson18-24 yr olds 32-29 JohnsonWorking class 44-17 JohnsonMiddle class 42-23 JohnsonLondon 32-29 Johnson Put that in your twitter pipe & smoke it … — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) October 16, 2019 Why I’m not betting on a Tory landslide at the next election. In recent weeks it seems we get regular polling, like the tweet atop this article, on leadership ratings and preferred…

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As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

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The voting intentions in the same YouGov poll. New YouGov/Times poll sees CON up 2 CON 37% +2LAB 22% =LD 18% -2BRX 11% -1GRN 5% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2019 A GE constituency poll We conducted a telephone method constituency poll (f/w) Oct 2nd) on behalf of the Liberal Democrats in Finchley & Golders Green. Headline GE voting intention with named candidate prompt was: Conservative – 29%Liberal Democrat – 41%Labour – 25%Green – 3%Brexit Party – 2%…

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New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

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New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 https://t.co/syj1N2Kmdr pic.twitter.com/ASOz17y6qr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2019 Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in Scotland SNP 39% +2.1 CON 21% -7.6 LAB 20% -7.1 LD 13% +6.2 GRN 2% +1.8 BREX 5% Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo At the past…

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2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

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On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot. I’ve never been convinced of December because staging such a vote when the day’s are shortest and voters attentions are focused on the holiday never looked like a possibility. Meanwhile Corbyn has announced that he’ll step down as LAB leader if his party…

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