Latest voting intention CON-May 6 LAB-May 6 LD-May 6 Conservative 83% 2% 6% Labour 1% 80% 15% Lib Dem 2% 2% 54% UKIP – 1% 1% Greens 1% 1% 3% BNP – – 3% Would not vote 3% 2% 2% Won’t say/don’t know 10% 12% 18% Some data from Ashcroft’s 6,000 sample Populus poll The above table showing current voting intention linked to what respondents said they did at the election is from the 6,000 sample Populus poll of marginals…
Candidate Membership MPs/MEPs Trade Unions Electoral College David Miliband 34.9 38.87 26.08 33.28 Ed Miliband 30.8 27.94 39.5 32.75 Diane Abbott 20.4 6.07 15.23 13.90 Andy Burnham 9 13.77 12.87 11.88 Ed Balls 4.9 13.36 6.32 8.19 But are the brothers really neck and neck? There’ve been sharpish moves to EdM overnight on Betfair following a projected result published on the Left Foot Forward, the blog edited by Will Straw. On Monday EdM was trading in the 3.75 – 3.8…
http://www.populuslimited.com/politics-category.html Is this another reason not to sign up? One aspect of the paywall debate and the challenge that newspapers face with declining circulations is that budgets for polling can suffer. Carrying out a 1,500 sample telephone poll, as Populus used to do for the Times every month, is a costly business and you can see this being scaled back. The last one from the firm, according to its website featured above, was before the general election. All this is…
Could Dave be tempted to go for an election? The above Tweet from the Sun certainly seemed to have got people going overnight overnight but how feasible is the idea of the blues going it alone? Surely the Sun’s political team have got this one wrong? Although a 43% share sounds good the poll numbers represents an increase in the CON share of 6% and an increase in the LAB share if 4.3%. That’s a swing to the Tories from…
Poll Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sunday Times 10/07/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 09/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 08/07/10 41 36 17 YouGov/Sun 07/07/10 40 36 17 YouGov/Sun 06/07/10 41 36 15 YouGov/Sun 05/07/10 40 36 16 YouGov/Sunday Times 02/07/10 41 36 16 YouGov/Sun 01/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 30/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun 29/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun 28/06/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 22/06/10…
Couldn’t this devalue their output? According to YouGov senior executive and the man behind UKPollingReport, Anthony Wells, this week marks the start of daily polls being published by the firm – seemingly forever. The idea was started during last year’s autumn conference season and was revived in February for the run-up to polling day. Both those moves seemed logical given the proximity of the general election. But what are we to make of this latest development? Do we really want…
Proportion who did what they said ICM Re-poll CONSERVATIVES 95% LABOUR 93% LIB DEMS 87% New study looks at what went wrong As we all know the 2010 general election wasn’t a good one for the pollsters. The Lib Dems were very much over-stated with the Tories, and to a much greater extent, Labour being under-stated. The one bright spot was the remarkable success of the exit poll which for the second election running got the leading party seat total…
What’ll the LDs do if the referendum is lost? Precisely ten months from today we’ll be getting the results of the referendum on the AV voting system – that’s assuming that the necessary legislation gets through unscathed and, of course, nothing happens in the meantime that causes the coalition to splinter. Given that Labour seems to be edging towards opposition and the lack of enthusiasm from the Tories then the chance of it being approved don’t look good. What then…