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Category: General Election

Is Labour’s return next time almost a foregone conclusion?

Is Labour’s return next time almost a foregone conclusion?

Guardian What do we think of Polly’s election prediction? Although the next general election might not take place until May 2015 there’s what amounts to a big prediction by Guardian columnist, Polly Toynbee, in the paper this morning. Talking about a “red carpet of opportunity” awaiting Labour she declares that “Cameron will be doomed by his cuts and Clegg by his betrayal.” In fact Polly is so confident is about what’s going to happen that she’s now referring to “Labour…

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Now all pollsters are showing a Labour lead

Now all pollsters are showing a Labour lead

Latest PAPA Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % GE accuracy ranking ICM/Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 2= Populus/Times 24/10/10       2= Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 2= ComRes/Independent 29/11/10 36 40 12 5= YouGov/Sun 11/12/10 40 42 9 8 Angus Reid/Politicalbetting 29/11/10 35 40 13 9= ***PAPA*** LATEST 36.6 39.8 12.4 – And the LDs back to single figures with YouGov For nearly a fortnight the YouGov daily poll has had the Tories equal or ahead…

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The Patrick Perspective: “If the LDs sink then Dave is out”

The Patrick Perspective: “If the LDs sink then Dave is out”

A guest slot on the future of the coalition The above chart shows the actual poll shares achieved at the general elections from 1979 onwards. The 2015 numbers are the current PAPA numbers (Mike’s polling average). It also shows the GE turnout % (green line) and the combined share of Labour plus the LibDems (dotted line). What does it tell us? Firstly, it shows that there is quite some truth in the notion that Labour and the LibDems have historically…

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Are non-voters driving Labour’s polling position?

Are non-voters driving Labour’s polling position?

How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) Voted at the 2010 general election Didn’t vote at the 2010 election Conservative supporters 91% 9% Labour supporters 82% 18% Lib Dem supporters 92% 8% The above is taken from the latest ComRs data on its new poll and seeks to break down current supporters into those who said they did vote at the last election and those who, for whatever reason didn’t. Whether you have voted in the past or not…

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Could Yvette replace EdM before the next general election?

Could Yvette replace EdM before the next general election?

Is there any way that he can get the media on his side? After his media hammering over the past 24 hours I’m beginning to wonder whether Ed Miliband will last the course and be replaced, probably by Yvette Cooper, before the general election. Since yesterday morning there’s been one story after another bringing bad news for the Labour leadership. Even Nick Robinson at the officially impartial BBC got into the act by mocking Ed’s term “the squeezed middle” as…

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Are we now seeing the phenomenon of the “shy yellows”?

Are we now seeing the phenomenon of the “shy yellows”?

Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%) ICM/Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 ICM/Guardian 24/10/10 39 36 16 ICM/NOTW 22/10/10 40 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 07/10/10 38 34 18 ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18 ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21 Labour take a two point lead with ICM Tonight’s Guardian ICM poll has…

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As the polling industry gather for its election post-mortem….

As the polling industry gather for its election post-mortem….

Pollster Firm Prediction Andrew Hawkins ComRes Con majority 32 Ben Page Ipsos-MORI Con 25 seats short Andrew Cooper Populus Con majority of 10+ Peter Kellner YouGov Con majority 20-30 Robert Salvoni Harris Con majority 2-10 Andy Morris Angus Reid Con majority 40-50 Martin Boon ICM Con majority 20 John Heald Opinion Research Con majority 40+ …remember these April 11th predictions? With almost all the leading figures in the polling industry getting together today for their general election post-mortem I thought…

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Nick Clegg – “Politician of the Year”

Nick Clegg – “Politician of the Year”

What do we think of the Spectator’s line-up of awards? We’re coming to that point in the calendar when we also start to look back over the year that was and the first set-piece event took place last night – The Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year awards 2010. This was the line-up after an extraordinary and eventful year that simply did not go to plan. Who could have predicted these names on January 1st? Newcomer of the Year: Caroline Lucas…

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