Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few. 1) What are the people who voted in 2017 and who are now saying “don’t know/won’t vote” going to do? In a recent YouGov poll,…
Here are some of today’s front pages and I don’t think there is anything as memorable as the Daily Mail at the same time in the process in 2017. There is much less Tory triumphalism. Its front page today is perhaps the most overtly political and highlights the twin worries for the Tories from the Lib Dems and the Brexit party which both threaten Johnson’s party in different ways. To the Sun and the Daily Express this is all about…
Swing Bellwethers: 2010, 2015, 2017 general elections So the waiting is almost over and Johnson has got his December 12th election date. The vote on the amendment to have it three days earlier was defeated and the government had a rare Commons victory. This is not the same proposal as the one defeated yesterday. Given the polling it is easy to see why punters on Betfair are putting their money on a Tory majority but there is a long time…
The projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway One thing’s for sure in the coming battle is how individual seats voted in the referendum on June 23rd 2016. Above is the standard reference on this projected by the leading political scientist, Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway. Most seats are just projections but in a number there are real results coming from councils which issued data down to ward level. I have the spreadsheet set up so that they…
Are we going to see almost perpetual extensions? The latest extension of the Article 50 process is the third time this has happened and, as the latest YouGov polling shows, just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year. It is not as though an extension is unusual. By my counting this is the third time the process has been put back and, who knows, we could see the same happen again. Of…
Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade. If Boris Johnson is granted his desire and we have a December general election we will have a first general election in forty-five years that hasn’t been held in the April to June window. There’s a belief amongst…
? NEW: A new plan tonight to offer Boris Johnson the pre-Christmas election he craves. ? The Lib Dems have drawn up a bill that would allow Johnson to secure a December election with a simple majority of MPs. Crucially, the SNP will back it. THREAD. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/gCWe9pwfPF — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) October 26, 2019 Their plan would be that the bill, if adopted by Johnson, could be taken through parliament on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Parliament dissolves next Monday. Election…
Wikimedia commons Going dark so early will surely will have an impact We all know that the nights are very long in December when Mr. Johnson, wants to have his general election. This will be decided in the Commons on Monday. Looking through the times of sunset December 12th happens to be the earliest of the year throughout the UK this year. In London it goes dark at 1551 and it gets earlier the further you go up north. In…