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Category: General Election

Could the Etonian whose actions cost the Tories 20 seats really succeed Cameron?

Could the Etonian whose actions cost the Tories 20 seats really succeed Cameron?

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Ladbrokes move Etonian Jesse Norman next CON leader price from 50/1 to 33/1 following Speccie article. This is him. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2013 There’s been a flurry of activity following an article by Bruce Anderson in the Spectator tipping Jesse Norman to be Dave’s successor. Norman, who entered the commons in May 2010, came to prominence in July 2012 when he organised and led the hugely successful rebellion that ensured that the upper house would continue…

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The seats where the Tories ought to be praying for a Lib Dem revival

The seats where the Tories ought to be praying for a Lib Dem revival

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Corporeal looks at the yellows in CON-LAB battle-grounds There seems have been few Conservative tears shed over the decline in Lib Dem poll ratings, but there might be at least a few blues quietly hoping for a yellow revival. The polling suggests that the Lib Dem vote will be declining severely. This will obviously affect the results in Lib Dem held seats (we’ll get to those) and have MPs facing LD challenges sleeping rather easier, but it’s also going to…

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Is LAB trying to spook Shapps with the publication of its target seat list?

Is LAB trying to spook Shapps with the publication of its target seat list?

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Are all 106 seats named really targets? The big general election news today has been the publication by LAB of the 106 marginal seats that it will try to win in 2015. The full list is here. At the launch Tom Watson MP said the aim was to achieve an overall majority of 60 – if all 106 seats were won then it would be 80. But I just wonder how serious the red team is and whether this is…

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A challenging time for LAB as the negative impact of Osborne’s March 2012 budget appears to be waning

A challenging time for LAB as the negative impact of Osborne’s March 2012 budget appears to be waning

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Fewer people are blaming the CON-LD coalition for the cuts than at any time since the March 2012 budget. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2013 32 months after losing power LAB is still being blamed YouGov’s regular tracker “Who’s most to blame for current spending cuts?” is one I return to time and time again because I believe it might be a good pointer by the time we get to 2015. Today’s latest figures are refelected…

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The power of incumbency: The 2010 LAB experience

The power of incumbency: The 2010 LAB experience

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2010 election: How LAB incumbents not implicated in expenses scandal did against those who were and new candidates. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2013 Even expenses scandal MPs did better This is the second our charts based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and looks at the impact of incumbency at the 2010 general election. This time the focus is on the governing party that was seeking…

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Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

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Punters not totally convinced that the coalition will go the full distance.See timing of election prices twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Should we be betting on a pre-2015 election? My view remains that the glue that bonds the coalition partners together is the LAB poll ratings. As long as it looks as though both coalition partners would be hammered then they are going to stick it out. Now if the Tories could stage a remarkable recovery then…

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The John Curtice quote that neatly sums up the current political landscape

The John Curtice quote that neatly sums up the current political landscape

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It all goes back to Osborne’s March 2012 budget Commenting on today’s Mail on Sunday Survation poll that has CON 29: LAB 38: LD 11: UKIP 16 Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said:- “…..an election that would otherwise look like a reasonably close contest looks like an easy walkover for Labour. Tory supporters have been unhappy with the Government ever since George Osborne’s omnishambles Budget. I would expect UKIP to fall away to some degree by the Election but…

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The first time incumbency bonus could make the Tory task of hanging on a bit easier

The first time incumbency bonus could make the Tory task of hanging on a bit easier

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The 1st time incumbency bonus that could make the Tory election challenge a bit easier. See chart. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55384 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2013 The above chart is based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and seeks to reflect the impact of incumbency at the general election. As can be seen the type of CON seat where the party did least well were in seats they were…

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