Browsed by
Category: General Election

One election defeat then the Right will realign

One election defeat then the Right will realign

Comments 0 Comment

The EU issue the only big thing dividing the Tories from UKIP The Conservative Party is one of the oldest and most successful political parties across the world.  It is so partly because it has had in the past displayed a surprisingly flexible approach in adapting to defeat, and partly because it has ensured it dominated the political field on the centre-right, either by eliminating or allying with rivals.  So can it do so against in response to the rise…

Read More Read More

This morning’s YouGov should ease some of the Tory jitters

This morning’s YouGov should ease some of the Tory jitters

Comments 0 Comment

After the record lows CON up 3 Ukip down 3 The changes in today’s YouGov are all within the margin of error – even so they will be enough to relieve some of the pressure on the blue team. Not only will they be pleased to be back in the 30s the changes all seem to have been at UKIP’s expense. As we always say we need to see more results like this before we can draw many conclusions. But…

Read More Read More

YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm

YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm

Comments 0 Comment

And LAB drops to 15 month low as UKIP surges The figures from the latest News International daily poll by YouGov are above and show the continued damage that the dramatic rise of Ukip is having particularly on the Tories. Since YouGov started polling after the 2001 General Election the blues have never been on this level. The LAB 38% is the lowest for them since February 20th 2012. Only the LDs in this survey seem relatively unaffected. In terms…

Read More Read More

If Dan Hodges wins his bet with me then Ed will have to stay on the opposition side of the chamber

If Dan Hodges wins his bet with me then Ed will have to stay on the opposition side of the chamber

Comments 0 Comment

EdM and Dave almost have the chamber to themselves twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 @dpjhodges , who writes almost exclusively on EdM, has agree to double up our wager on which’ll get most seats @ GE2015. He says CON, me LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 The initial bet was for £50 – a straight even money wager. Now Dan and I have agreed to raise that to £100. Labour don’t even need to win…

Read More Read More

Saying you will vote for Ukip at GE2015: The great divider between the generations

Saying you will vote for Ukip at GE2015: The great divider between the generations

Comments 0 Comment

28% of the 60+ group but just 6% of the 25-39s This poll is the first one to be published where all the fieldwork took place after the results of Thursday’s local elections became known. There’s one slight caveat. Polling that takes place over long holiday weekends can sometimes produce odd results. With this one YouGov started on Bank Holiday Monday. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB Honoured to be ‘followed’ by @msmithsonpb -psephological…

Read More Read More

Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll

Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll

Comments 0 Comment

In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 But Farage’s party would still get zero MPs Feeding tonight’s YouGov into the Electoral Calculus HoCpredictor we get a LAB majority of 108. Ukip on zero seats twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 The Electoral Calculus Commons seat predictor has been revised to factor…

Read More Read More

It’s exactly 2 years to go before the May 7 2015 general election: Current chances of a CON majority are put at just 1%

It’s exactly 2 years to go before the May 7 2015 general election: Current chances of a CON majority are put at just 1%

Comments 0 Comment

And Labour’s chances of a majority are put at 81% It’s May 7th which means that it is exactly two years before the before the date laid down in the legislation introduced in October 2010 as the day of the next general election. There are provisions for this to be earlier but as long as the polling suggests that both coalition partners would get a drubbing it’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which this might happen. This extraordinary partnership…

Read More Read More

Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to Ukip

Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to Ukip

Comments 0 Comment

Tomorrow it will be exactly 6 months since @nadinedorriesmp was suspended as a CON MP. Farage is making overtures. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2013 It’s starting to appear “nasty” that the whip has not been restored to @nadinedorriesmp . — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 4, 2013 It’s time to “Free the Mid-Bedfordshire One” In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday….

Read More Read More